Mets 2020 offseason wish list

Expect the Mets to back up the Brink trucks in free agency for the first time in club history this winter. (Photo via NY Post).

With new owner Steve Cohen taking over the New York Mets, it’s obvious to say big changes are coming. Instead of hoping the Mets solve a hole or two like they have the last few winters, huge expectations are here right now to become an instant, perennial contender. It’s okay to dream big Mets fans, as Cohen has discussed upping payroll and investing in not just players but more analytics and front office personnel.

The Dodgers got new ownership in 2012 who drastically improved not just the roster but the entire organization. The franchise hasn’t missed the playoffs since. Cohen mentioned during his press conference while he wants to do things his own Met way, the Dodgers certainly are an organization that should be emulated.

Below should be the Mets offseason wish list that makes them an instant contender. While this list would have been fantasyland just a year ago, it certainly seems realistic based off of Cohen’s comments about reinvesting into the team.

1. Sign Trevor Bauer

Trevor Bauer is clearly the top pitcher on the market and its already clear there is mutual interest between the Mets and Bauer. Sandy Alderson on WFAN last week described Bauer’s unique personality as something that could be a welcome addition to NY. Alderson brought up how baseball is an entertainment industry first and foremost. Bauer is a very intelligent pitcher who Alderson said could help the Mets out with new ideas when it comes to pitching.

Bauer has also made it clear he would have interest in pitching for the Mets. Bauer put up a YouTube clip which was around 15 minutes of praising Steve Cohen’s press conference and social media approach to addressing the fans. The title of Bauer’s video is “Steve Cohen’s BRILLIANT start”.

The main question with Bauer isn’t how his personality will fit in a major market like New York but what will be his price tag? Bauer has said in the past he will take one-year deals to maximize his future earnings but based on the season he just had, that seems unlikely. Bauer has been inconsistent in his Major League career but finished his ninth MLB season on a high note with a Cy Young award and a 1.73 ERA. Top of the rotation pitching is in short supply so even in this depressed free agent market, Bauer will be paid like an ace. While the timing couldn’t be any better for Bauer’s free agency, he’s not exactly a consistent ace. Look at his ERA each of the last four seasons, 4.19, 2.21, 4.48 and 1.73. Across those four seasons, Bauer has a 3.46 ERA, a good pitcher but not the elite ace that he’ll be paid as.

Trevor Bauer says he's never signing a long-term deal. Only one-year contracts.

Why? Turns out he made a bet with a friend: If he ever signs a multi-year deal, the friend gets to shoot him in the nuts with a paintball gun from 10 feet away.

Full podcast: https://t.co/hvN9x1gPKo pic.twitter.com/9l3z7PHLGz

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 6, 2018

Bauer has often expressed an interest in signing one-year deals every year to always pitch for a contender. Plus there’s this bet … Will Trevor Bauer hold up his side of the bet with his best friend about signing a multi-year deal?

Despite the small-sample size, is it possible Bauer figured something out this season? While his Cy Young season was just 11 starts, 100 strikeouts in 73 innings is far from a fluke. The upside is certainly there for Bauer to perform similarly in future seasons.

A rotation of Jacob deGrom, Bauer, Marcus Stroman, David Peterson and eventually (hopefully) Noah Syndergaard is the type of rotation that gets into the playoffs and has a legit chance at a championship.

The last time the Mets got to the World Series was based on their pitching. Signing Trevor Bauer is the first step in solidifying a rotation that desperately needs top of the rotation help.

2. Sign George Springer

While the Houston Astros have already re-signed Yuli Gurriel and have shown interest in bringing back Michael Brantley, there has been very little reporting that the Astros will spend the big dollars necessary to retain George Springer.

George Springer is the two-way centerfielder the Mets have been lacking since trading Carlos Beltran away nearly a decade ago.

There is certainly concern about how good the Astros hitters are after the sign-stealing scandal, but Springer didn’t regress much this season (.265/.359/.540 in 222 PAs). What also makes Springer special is he’s been one of the better postseason hitters over the last decade with 18 home runs and a .925 OPS over his last 56 playoff games. Springer is 31 so the question is how will his centerfield defense decline as he gets into his mid-30’s. The hope is the Mets can sign him to a five-year contract and find a new center fielder in year three or four, moving Springer into a corner at that time. Like Bauer, there really isn’t an adequate replacement at his position if the Mets choose elsewhere on the free agent market. The next best centerfielder on the open market is 30-year-old Jackie Bradley Jr. who is a career .239/.321/.412 hitter, pass. As Springer went, so did the Astros and the hope would be he could do the same for what could be a special Met lineup.

George Springer’s infectious energy at the top of the Houston lineup has led to countless comeback Astros victories. (Photo via Houston Chronicle).

Expect the Mets to land a big hitter in free agency, they’ve already shown interest in Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna is a big bat but the Mets need a center fielder, not another LF/DH type at the moment.

3. Extend Michael Conforto

Michael Conforto had a breakout 2020 and it makes a lot of sense to see if the Scott Boras client would consider a long-term extension before he hits free agency. Conforto will get a decent raise in arbitration on his $8 million 2020 salary. Could an extension similar to Justin Upton’s five-year, $106 million contract with the Angels make sense for the Mets? Upton had more MLB experience than Conforto when he signed his deal but since that deal is a few years old, (factoring in inflation) this could make some sense. An outfield duo for most of the decade of Springer and Conforto could be special offensively.

From August 5th, 2020: Steven Inman discusses why this is the right time to extend Michael Conforto.

It makes a lot of sense for the Mets to also look at some of their other position players as candidates for long term extensions. The sooner the Mets lock those young players up such as Jeff McNeil, Dominic Smith and Pete Alonso, the cheaper they will be long term. Conforto is looking at $100 plus million because the Mets didn’t explore this possibility when signs of the breakout were appearing. Again, it takes two to tango and Boras may apt for Conforto to hit free agency but Boras clients have signed extension close to free agency before, such as Stephen Strasburg and Jered Weaver.

4. Resist the temptation to trade for Francisco Lindor

You just bought your hometown franchise and the fanbase looks at you like the savior. I bet it’s awfully tempting to make that franchise-altering move and acquire a superstar, middle of the diamond player to immediately put your stamp on the team. Cohen and the Mets need to resist that temptation and let him get traded elsewhere.

Francisco Lindor is in the final year of arbitration and will become a free agent in 2021. This means a team isn’t just paying the Indians prospects but also in terms of a close to $300 million dollar contract. Lindor is likely worth that money as a dynamic shortstop and middle of the order bat but the Mets have spent most of their prospect depth over the last two years under Brodie Van Wagenen. This means the Mets will likely have to include big league talent in the deal for Lindor. Speculation has come up this could mean Andres Gimenez and more importantly Jeff McNeil. McNeil is a career .319/.383/.501 hitter in three seasons as a Met. The sample size is large enough now to show that he’s no fluke and I can’t imagine trading him as part of a bigger package for a rental player, no matter how good Lindor is. Now maybe the asking price on Lindor decreases as the winter goes on and we can discuss this idea further but that is unlikely.

The trade for Lindor now supporters compare this to the Mookie Betts trade, where Betts signed long term in LA, won a World Series and never reached free agency. Yes, the same thing could happen to Lindor on his new team as well. Having said that, there are plenty of 2021 All-Star shortstop options available for the Mets in a year besides Lindor such as Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Javier Baez & Carlos Correa. It is likely that a couple of them could sign long term deals before they hit free agency. With that said, the odds that none of them hit the open market is remote at best. Sandy Alderson has acknowledged that the upper levels of the minors are barren. Amed Rosario and Gimenez can handle shortstop and the No. 9 spot in the lineup for a year (assuming the DH is back again because why wouldn’t it be) and then the Mets can make shortstop a top priority in a year if neither of those homegrown players show they can handle the full-time role.

5. Finally fix the bullpen

Death, taxes and the New York Mets bullpen underachieving are the only things certain in this world but with a new owner comes new possibilities. Could one of these possibilities be the Mets finally fixing their bullpen? Absolutely and this is a great winter to try it.

The Indians declined a relatively cheap club option on closer Brad Hand and shockingly no team in baseball claimed him. Hand, 30, has a 2.70 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over his last five seasons as one of the more underrated bullpen weapons in the game. The entire baseball industry decided he wasn’t worth picking up for a $10 million 2021 salary and he went unclaimed. This means if you are one of the few franchises willing to spend this winter, not only can you revamp your roster, but you can also get really great bargains too.

Hand should be considered, as should Athletics closer Liam Hendriks, as the free agent struck out 161 in 110.1 innings over his last two seasons in Oakland. Certainly don’t expect the small market A’s to spend wildly in free agency. Expect the Brewers to dangle dynamic closer Josh Hader in trade discussions again this winter as he gets pricier but with so many interesting free agent options, the Mets should preserve their prospects. The Mets should also move Seth Lugo back to the bullpen where he’s at his best. It’s been made very clear that he reportedly prefers to start but he’s just such an impact pitcher out of the bullpen, it makes too much sense to move him back to relief for good. The Mets could find a middle of the rotation starter like Charlie Morton or Jake Odorizzi on a one-year deal to fill Lugo’s rotation spot. By acquiring one or even both of Hendriks and Hand and moving Seth Lugo back to the bullpen, the Mets have the makings of a great bullpen. Not only are Lugo, Hand & Hendriks great relievers, but they all have experience in a variety of bullpen roles. The Mets must get bullpen insurance in case Edwin Diaz blows up again.

6. Sign James McCann

While J.T. Realmuto is the best catcher in baseball and available on the free agent market, it’s scary to commit 100+ million to a catcher who will be 30 before Opening Day. Has a large, long-term contract for a catcher ever worked out for a team before? Buster Posey and Joe Mauer were being transitioned to first base long before the final years of their contracts (Posey is still owed $22.177,778 in the final guaranteed year in his contract in 2021). The Blue Jays last year paid $16.4 million to get the Dodgers to take the final year of Russell Martin’s contract off their hands.

It makes much more sense to make catcher a year-to-year position because it’s just so taxing. Willson Contreras would be the perfect fit but it’s unclear what the Cubs would want for him (it would take a big haul). Veteran James McCann is the best solution here as he is a solid defensive catcher who has learned how to hit big league pitching in his two seasons with the White Sox, slashing .276/.334/.474 across 587 plate appearances. McCann is hardly a star catcher but he’s solid enough to drive in some runs batting eighth, while more importantly handling a very good pitching staff. McCann could likely be had on a two-year $26 million contract. The money the Mets are saving on his deal compared to signing Realmuto is going towards Bauer & Springer’s large contracts.

Again, this is the Mets offseason “wish list” meaning if they fall short of doing all of these things, it’s far from a disaster. Having said that, there is no reason not to expect an eventful offseason where many of these things listed above could happen.

Now it’s your turn. Leave in the comments below your Mets offseason wish list. Let’s Go Mets!

First base is becoming a problem for the Mets

By Steven Inman

Kennys Vargas could be had on the cheap for the Mets

The New York Mets have been looking for a long-term option at first base since the Carlos Delgado era ended nearly a decade ago. Since then, the Mets have employed the likes of Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, James Loney plus a few others with only Duda having strung together much success. Even while Duda had a few strong power seasons with the Amazins, Sandy Alderson and his staff considered him a stopgap option the last few years. Over the past 6 seasons, Mets 1B have hit .242/.329/.438, which is in the bottom third of baseball over that time frame. The Mets have struggled offensively the last few years and health has a lot to do with that but strong lineups often have a big slugger at first base. The Mets haven’t had a consistent All-Star caliber hitter at first since Delgado. This year should be more of the same, so let’s examine who the Mets can look towards at this key position.

Internal Candidates

Adrian Gonzalez – Gonzalez has not had a good spring after having a dismal 2017 season, where he hit just 3 home runs in 71 games. With that said it seems pretty clear that he is the Mets choice to start the season as the 1^st baseman. He still carries a quality glove and has a tremendous track record of All-Star production before 2017. He’s only costing the Mets the league minimum so it wasn’t a huge risk to bring the 5-time All-Star to camp. The main risk with Gonzalez comes from his influence in the clubhouse. I say that because he intentionally missed the World Series with the Dodgers to go on vacation with his family in Europe. The Dodgers couldn’t have been thrilled with that who then convinced him to waive his no trade clause a few months ago to go to Atlanta where he would be cut. If Adrian hits this season he will remain the Mets first baseman.

Dominic Smith – The Mets 2013 first round pick seemingly has squandered his opportunity to be an everyday player in New York for the foreseeable future. Dom pretty much needs to get healthy and for Gonzalez to struggle to get another opportunity. He had just a .658 OPS in 183 PA’s last season with the big club. Smith also really struggled defensively and has missed most of Spring Training with a quad injury. The perception was Dominic Smith had a shot at the Opening Day roster with a strong camp. He was benched early on in camp for being late one day, scouts have questioned his conditioning and he hasn’t been comfortable enough to run with the quad, let alone get back in a game. Dominic Smith’s Met career is in jeopardy just when it was getting started.

Peter Alonso – For the last few years, there has been a pretty even split in the Mets front office on who is the first baseman of the future, Dominic Smith or Peter Alonso. Alonso, 23, has hit in every minor league stop he has been in and is probably the most likely candidate on this list now to be the Mets long-term first baseman. Alonso’s signature trait, his power, could be a game changer in New York. The University of Florida product hit 18 homers in just 93 games in the minors last season. Alonso is a big kid who has a big strike zone so K’s could be an issue as he moves up. He might not be in the Mets plans for a majority of this season (he only has played in 11 games above High-A) but this is a bat to keep an eye on. Dominic Smith needs to get on a field and produce quickly as Alonso is right on his heels now.

External Candidates

Adam Lind – Lind, 34, has played with four different clubs (TOR, MIL, SEA, WSH) over the last four seasons. You would think with his production in that span (.280/.345/.466 in 1,621 PA’s) he would stop bouncing around but the 12-year vet was forced to sign a minor league deal with the Yankees in a very slow free agency. After it looked like he wouldn’t make the team with the addition of Neil Walker, Lind was granted his release. Lind has always mashed right-handed pitching to the tune of .288/.348/.504. He wouldn’t cost much more than the league minimum and pairing him with the lefty mashing Wilmer Flores (.862 OPS against LHP in 2017), could give the Mets one of the best platoon situations in all of baseball.

Kennys Vargas – The former Twin who has drawn David Ortiz comparisons by many was designated for assignment last week by Minnesota. They have a few more days to find a trade for him before he can become a free agent. The 27-year old has shown flashes of massive power but was never able to stick as a full time 1B or DH in Minnesota. The addition of Logan Morrison, who slugged 38 homers in Tampa last season, made Vargas expendable in Minnesota. Vargas hit 21 homers over the last two seasons, in just 441 PA’s. His strikeouts are probably a huge concern for interested teams but Vargas could be worth a flier. He also has just two full seasons of MLB service, so should he be able to stick on a roster, he will be cheap and under control for a long time.

It seems as if the Mets are committed to giving Adrian Gonzalez the first crack to solve this position. My choice would be a Lind/Flores tag team at first. They would be smart to check in on Lind as soon as possible and Lind would likely be interested in coming to Queens with the amount of playing time likely available.

Who do you think should be the Mets first baseman in 2018 and beyond?

The Mets should trade for Jason Kipnis

By Steven Inman

Photo via CBS

If you’re reading this, you probably already know it’s been a very quiet offseason for the New York Mets. The team brought in 2017 breakout reliever Anthony Swarzak early on and re-signed Jay Bruce to a 3-year deal Wednesday. This has been the slowest moving MLB offseason in recent memory and there are still plenty of players available that can turn the Mets into a contending club before it’s time to report to Port St. Lucie next month. The Mets could use a starting pitcher and another reliever but it appears Sandy Alderson and his staff has made solving second base a priority. The issue the Mets are having is they’re trying to drastically cut payroll and don’t seem to have the prospects necessary to acquire talent in trades. Despite not having a lot of chips at the table, the Mets can still get their man. Second basemen like Ian Kinsler and Dee Gordon (Dee will play CF in Seattle) were traded for little more than salary relief earlier this offseason. The player the Mets should grab will be tougher to acquire than just a salary dump but he’s worth looking into. That player is Jason Kipnis.

Kipnis, 30, is coming off the worst season of his 7-year MLB career. He was banged up and missed about half of the season with injuries. He didn’t really hit and eventually the Indians decided to move AL MVP candidate Jose Ramirez to Kipnis’ position at 2B and move Jason to center field. The move held mix results for Kipnis and he is expected to move back to second should he stay in Cleveland in 2018.

Kipnis has been in trade talks all winter but the Indians have reportedly been reluctant to move the 2-time All-Star. Kipnis in 2015-16 before his injury plagued year, hit a healthy .289/.357/.460 in nearly 1200 at-bats. During those seasons Kipnis was also a very strong defensive player at 2B so the Indians shifting him to the outfield, where he hadn’t played since 2009 rookie ball was strange. His contract isn’t cheap which is probably why Cleveland is even considering moving him. Kipnis is owed around $13.7M in 2018, $14.7M in 2019 and then has a $16.5M club option for 2020. With that said if Kipnis can come close to his 2015-16 numbers he is a nice bargain for whatever club he is on.

It’s unknown what the Mets could give up that would intrigue the contending Indians. After losing Bryan Shaw to Free Agency they can probably use another reliever. Would the Indians have interest in AJ Ramos and prospects in a Jason Kipnis deal? If I were the Mets I’d have to explore it. While Ramos is expected to be a big part of the Mets bullpen, his salary will jump via arbitration from the $6.55M he made in 2017. The money the Mets could save could allow them to make another big move such as upgrading their starting rotation or look into another reliever to replace Ramos.

When considering the Mets’ payroll remember Jay Bruce’s 3-year $39M deal is backloaded this season, perhaps in an effort to let Sandy Alderson make another big move.

It’s strange to see a quality player like Jason Kipnis reportedly available at arguably his lowest value but there have been similar salary dumps across baseball this offseason. Time for the Mets to take advantage.

The 2017-18 Mets Offseason

In the offseason edition of the Mets Report podcast Rob DeLucia and Steve Inman discuss the impact Mickey Callaway can have on the Mets, what Omar Minaya’s new role will be in the organization, the Mets second base options, why the Mets shouldn’t trade Juan Lagares and if the Mets only have $10-$15 million left to spend, who should the Mets spend it on? Thanks as always for the support and if you want a question or comment responded on the next show leave it below in the comments section!

The Mets should bring in Jon Jay this winter

By Steven Inman

Photo from Chicago Tribune

We’re well aware at this point how much the Mets need to add externally after a disastrous, 70-92 season. The team is going to have to add a 3B or 2B, bullpen help and another starting pitcher. Another piece they’re going to need is an additional outfielder. Yoenis Cespedes missed 81 games this season, Michael Conforto underwent major shoulder surgery and could miss a chunk of 2018 and Juan Lagares has not shown he can stay healthy at the major league level in his big league career yet. Obviously with so many needs and payroll coming down a reported $15-$20M, Sandy Alderson and his staff really can’t afford to spend big bucks on a major outfielder. The perfect guy to compliment the Mets outfield is Jon Jay.

Jay, 32, has been a solid table setter for the Cubs this season. He has stops on his baseball card in St. Louis and San Diego prior to signing a one year $8M deal with Chicago last winter. The Mets might be banking on Juan Lagares and Brandon Nimmo platooning in center field to start next season but that would be a mistake. The Mets must start to accrue depth, so they can have a plan B if/when everyone gets hurt again. If Conforto is in fact not ready for the season, Nimmo and Lagares would be forced to play every day and the Mets 4^th outfielder would be someone like Matt Reynolds, who hasn’t distinguished himself in the majors yet.

Jay hits lefties and righties at a great clip (.288 career vs LHP, .289 vs RHP). He is not a guy with much power but he can play all 3 outfield positions well and won’t break the bank. Jay just finished a 1-year, $8M contract with the Cubs and will likely get around the same money next season. Jay has said publicly his preference is to return to the Cubs, who have advanced to the NLCS or further the last 3 years but with the surplus of outfielders in Chicago, the Cubs may be inclined not to negotiate a new contract with Jay.

With the amount of injuries the Mets endured last season (and for the last decade) it would be smart for the club to start to accrue depth. By signing and starting Jay, the Mets would be in a position to have Brandon Nimmo and Juan Lagares as late inning pinch hitters and defensive replacements. Plus they could step in as starters should one of the Mets outfielders get hurt or in the likely event Conforto isn’t ready for the opener.

Does an outfielder like Jon Jay make sense for New York?

The Mets would better off non-tendering Matt Harvey

By Steven Inman

Photo from NY Times

In what has been a disastrous year for the New York Mets, perhaps no player has been more disappointing than the Mets former ace, Matt Harvey. After leaving the mound in the 9^th inning in Game 5 of the World Series 2 years ago, it has been all downhill for the right-hander. The last two seasons, Harvey has been totally ineffective with a dip in his fastball velocity by around a full mile per hour in each of the last two seasons. As a result of that, Harvey is throwing his fastball slightly less and his slider more. Harvey is in rare territory here as a pitcher trying to successfully return from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome.

It’s been difficult to find a pitcher to undergo this surgery and come back just as effective as he was before. Not saying it’s impossible, but the early results have been very discouraging. Harvey has a 5.82 ERA and has let up a whopping 17 homers in just 77.1 innings. (2.0 HR per 9) He has given up a ton of hard contact and doesn’t seem to be fooling hitters these days. As a player who has one final year of arbitration next season, it’s time for the Mets to let go of Harvey. In arbitration, whether it makes sense or not, it’s extremely rare for a player to get a pay cut. Matt Harvey is making $5.125 million this season so he will make slightly more if offered salary arbitration.

The Mets have question marks all over their team. With pretty much every top prospect in the organization already promoted to Citi Field, this farm system isn’t going to be able to contribute much in 2018. Sandy Alderson and his staff are going to have to find a second baseman, a third baseman, another starting pitcher, bullpen help and perhaps a corner outfielder with Michael Conforto in jeopardy of missing a chunk of next season. All of that is with the Mets saying it’s likely the team sticks with their current catching duo. Sandy Alderson acknowledged that the club’s payroll is likely to slightly decrease from the $145-150M it started this season as. With so many holes still to fill, paying Harvey $6M without any signs that he can be close to the pitcher that he was is probably not a great use of resources.

It’s highly unlikely Harvey would get $6M guaranteed somewhere if the Mets non-tendered him. If the team didn’t offer him arbitration, they could always bring him back on a smaller, incentive laden contract.

Harvey has had one of the more roller coaster careers an athlete has had in New York. The 28-year old went from the Dark Knight to getting booed in the blink of an eye. His agent Scott Boras along with Harvey were very apprehensive about the righty pitching throughout the postseason after putting so many innings on his arm coming off Tommy John surgery. Pressure from the Mets along with public pressure from fans and media, convinced Harvey not to shut himself down for the year and ignore his “innings limit”. We’ll never know if his downfall is because of all those IP in 2015, but they surely didn’t help him. Matt Harvey deserves a thank you from all Met fans for putting his career on the line in the pursuit of getting the Mets to that 2015 World Series.  He was magnificent in that game 5 vs Kansas City and if things had gone differently in that 9^th inning, perhaps Met fans would have a different outlook on Harvey today.

Harvey should be remembered as one of the great Met pitchers that helped the club reached just their 5^th World Series since 1962. With that said, it’s time to move on.

The Mets are going to have to make around a 20-game improvement next season if they want to make the postseason, to do that while cutting payroll, the Mets are going to have to make creative decisions like this one.

The Mets Report Podcast: The Post Trade Deadline Era

By Steven Inman

Join Rob DeLucia and I as we breakdown what the Mets did at the Trade Deadline, how the Mets’ payroll will look going forward, early impressions of Amed Rosario, what we hope to see out of Dominic Smith and what does the future in New York look like for Steven Matz, Zack Wheeler & Terry Collins?

Thanks for listening as always and any questions you want answered on the show, leave them in the comments section below!

https://soundcloud.com/rob-delucia/mets-report-podcast-august-2017

Once again, Mets success offensively will come down to Duda & d’Arnaud

 

By Steven Inman

As Met fans, tell me if you’ve heard this before, the Mets ability to score runs consistently, will come down to the success of Lucas Duda and Travis d’Arnaud. The major league careers to date for both players have been roller coasters, with 2016 being hopefully closest to the low point. Both hitters battled injuries and ineffectiveness all of last season to the point where they lost their starting jobs to inferior offensive players, at a time when the Mets really needed more offense. It’s no coincidence that both Duda and d’Arnaud combined for 11 homers, 38 RBI and less than 100 hits while the Mets finished just 25^th in runs last season. The two had their best seasons offensively in 2015 where the Mets finished middle of the pack in runs. For the most part, health permitting, the Mets have an idea of what they’re going to get out of Yoenis Cespedes, Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker. Duda and d’Arnaud when they’re swinging the bats well lengthen the lineup and allow those middle of the order hitters to possibly see an extra plate appearance a game with guys on base.

There isn’t a ton of stability in this Met lineup. Curtis Granderson is getting up there in age, Michael Conforto likely doesn’t have everyday plate appearances after the Mets completely botched the Jay Bruce situation and we all know the issues David Wright is going through to stay healthy. After the poor offensive season this group had as a whole, combined with all the question marks going into 2017, make Duda and d’Arnaud the Mets biggest x-factors offensively in ’17.

Besides the Mets need for these two to perform, 2017 is a HUGE year for both players.

Lucas Duda is set to become a free agent after the 2017 season and the free agent market has recently evolved into one that doesn’t reward all or nothing power hitters. Chris Carter, who tied for the NL lead in homers last season with 42, was non-tendered months ago and now can’t find an everyday job. The same goes for clubhouse favorite Mike Napoli. The Mets can’t even trade slugger Jay Bruce without eating some of his $13M remaining on his contract. Teams don’t value these  less athletic, non-versatile players anymore despite their enormous power. For Lucas Duda to find an everyday job in 2018 and beyond he is going to need to have a career year and show that he is more than just a power threat when healthy. The Mets have top prospects Peter Alonso and Dominic Smith getting closer and closer to the Mets 1^st base job so the writing is on the wall for a Duda departure, especially after he turned down a contract extension a few seasons ago. Duda slashed just .229/.302/.412 a season ago but he has put up healthy OBP’s with impressive power numbers in the past. While the Mets need Duda to perform in 2017, he needs a big year even more.

Like Duda, Travis d’Arnaud also badly needs a breakout season. The former top prospect has never been able to stay healthy at the major or minor league level. The backstop has struggled defensively and has shown he is unable to throw out runners to date. There are plenty of offensive minded catchers in the game and there is nothing wrong with that but d’Arnaud hit just .247/.307/.323 last season after a strong 2015. Even when d’Arnaud was healthy he lost at-bats to backup Rene Rivera, who the pitchers preferred to throw to. The two catchers offensive potentials are vastly different but the Mets didn’t seem to regret Rivera taking over for d’Arnaud down the stretch, which is terrifying considering Rivera is a career .213/.264/.332 hitter across 8 major league seasons. It seems as if the Mets are willing to give d’Arnaud another chance as the Mets starting catcher but it would surprise no one if this was his last chance. It’s no secret the Mets were interested in Jonathan Lucroy last summer and were willing to include d’Arnaud in a deal for him. Travis d’Arnaud’s upside is still of an elite offensive catcher (albeit with defensive issues) but the catcher will never be able to show off those skills if he doesn’t stay healthy this year. The Mets are a better and deeper team when d’Arnaud is hitting. Whether or not you believe in RBI as a legit stat, the Mets were 8-2 in ’16 when d’Arnaud drove in a run. The Mets are going to need d’Arnaud to drive in a run (or runs) in more than 10 games if they want to be a decent offensive club.

It’s pretty clear to any baseball fan that the New York Mets will rely heavily on their pitching in 2017 but without Duda and d’Arnaud contributing to this offense the Mets will remain an unbalanced team that will continue to be forced to search for offensive help.

Picking up Jay Bruce’s option continues to hurt Met offseason

By Steven Inman

Photo by Fox Sports

After losing the N.L. Wild Card Game, the Mets entered the offseason with a long list of needs. The club did most of their heavy lifting early by bringing back Yoenis Cespedes and Neil Walker. The Mets feel their bullpen is an area that needs improvement with the possibility that closer Jeurys Familia will miss time with a suspension after an alleged domestic violence incident. The Mets reportedly had interest in a few relievers that have gone off the board recently such as Brad Ziegler, who signed a multi-year contract with division rival Miami.

Junichi Tazawa, 30, would also have been a good fit for the Mets to eat up some middle relief innings but he also went to the Marlins. The Mets have been saying to agents that they are unable to add more salary now until they can move one of their expensive outfielders, most likely Jay Bruce or Curtis Granderson. The Mets have gotten more bites on Granderson than Bruce but neither has been seen by other teams as much more than a salary dump. Granderson finished the season red hot for the Mets and in my opinion is the better fit for New York in 2017. The Mets should have just dumped Jay Bruce so they don’t get left out in the cold on the reliever market. The longer the Mets stubbornly hold on to Bruce, the more likely they are going to miss out on adding to this bullpen.

The trade for Jay Bruce was very perplexing when it happened as the Mets didn’t really have a fit for him and the team was overly left-handed before the deal. The team was probably hoping Bruce, who didn’t cost much to get, would get hot like Cespedes did when acquired the summer before, but Bruce went on to not hit at all in his 2 plus months in Queens. That should have been the reason for the Mets to decline Bruce’s $13M team option as he really didn’t have much trade value. There is also the legitimate question of whether Bruce can handle the spotlight of playing in New York City. Some Mets fans believe picking up Bruce’s option was done as a “hedge” to protect themselves if Cespedes departed. If the Mets lost Cespedes they would have been better off declining Bruce’s option and using that money to add a different outfielder like Ian Desmond. It’s easy to wonder if the Mets, who were 25th in runs last year, lost Cespedes and replaced him with Jay Bruce for a full season, would they have scored the least amount of runs in the National League?

To start the offseason teams like the Blue Jays and Orioles reportedly were willing to take on Bruce’s contract but the Mets demanded something for the slugger. When the Orioles showed interest earlier in the offseason, the Mets reportedly asked for All-Star reliever Brad Brach. It seems like the Orioles moved on to trying to re-sign Mark Trumbo after that request, at least for the moment.

Now with so many notable home run hitters still stuck on the free agent board the Mets would be very fortunate to get someone to take Jay Bruce off their hands. Think of the scenario from an opposing team’s viewpoint: why would a team take on Bruce’s $13M and give the Mets something in a trade when they can just sign a similar player like free agent Chris Carter to a cheaper contract?

The Jay Bruce move continues to hurt the Mets and if they don’t clear payroll soon, they might lose out on re-signing Jerry Blevins or another lefty specialist that they need.  Also moving Bruce is vital for the Mets so they can get Michael Conforto every day at-bats. It’s going to be a distracting storyline in Spring Training if the Mets are unable to move Jay Bruce before camp opens in 6 weeks.

Do you think the Mets have been asking for too much in a Jay Bruce deal?

With Cespedes back, center field should be next priority for Mets

By Steven Inman

Met fans can rejoice as “La Potencia”, Yoenis Cespedes is now back in Queens and locked up long term. The Mets had to give Cespedes the 2^nd highest average annual value ever, but the team locked up their best hitter. After years and years of payrolls under $90M, the Mets being broke is a thing of the past. Ownership wants to win and they are giving Sandy Alderson the resources to get it done. While the Mets are back to spending big money, they are still being cautious about it. The Mets in the past when they spent big money always seemed to agree to deals one year too long on key contracts such as Pedro Martinez and Billy Wagner. The Mets stood their ground this time on not giving the 31-year old Cespedes a 5^th year and they look very smart today for doing so.

With all that said, the work is not done here just yet. The team now has 4 corner outfielders and no starting center fielder. Based on various reports it seems fairly obvious the Mets plan on trading a corner outfielder with Jay Bruce being the most likely to go. The Mets shouldn’t stop with Bruce, they should trade Curtis Granderson also and get a center fielder. The Mets have never prioritized defense but if they could put Cespedes in left and Michael Conforto in right, planked by a defensive, right-handed, center fielder, the Mets could have one of the best outfields in baseball. Here are a few of their options.

Dexter Fowler

Of the hitters listed here, Dexter Fowler is perhaps the best fit for the Mets. While he will cost a draft pick, Fowler, 30, could be a difference maker for the Amazins. The switch-hitter has been significantly better from the right side of the plate throughout his career which works in this very left-handed Met lineup. Fowler really improved his defensive numbers in center field this year thanks to playing deeper. The questions that would pop up if Fowler can handle center anymore are gone. Fowler is likely looking at a 4 year deal worth around $60M which is what the Mets handed Curtis Granderson 3 winters ago. Fowler was on perhaps the biggest stage in sports when he homered to lead off Game 7 of the World Series to help end a 108-year title drought for the Chicago Cubs so no, New York will not be too much for the Atlanta native to handle.

A.J. Pollock

Photo by CBS Sports

A.J. Pollock is a gifted, 5-tool center fielder who possesses a blend of power, speed and strong range in center field. He is the right-handed bat that would complete the Mets lineup and would make New York a strong threat to the Cubs to get back to the World Series. Pollock will be 29 next week and has 2 years left of club control before becoming a free agent as a key part of the 2018 monster free agency class. After a breakout 2015 season where he slashed .315/.367/.498, Pollock missed 150 games in 2016 following a serious elbow injury. After all the time he missed in 2016 and the Diamondbacks rough season, it’s hard to imagine the Notre Dame product isn’t available. The team already dealt Jean Segura on Thanksgiving, Segura also had 2 years of control left like Pollock. The Diamondbacks look to be rebuilding with a new front office after a disastrous stint with Dave Stewart and Tony La Russa running the ship.  Pollock will make $6.75M this season before going through arbitration in his final year of club control next winter. Despite his low monetary price tag, he will not be cheap under any circumstance in terms of prospects. The Mets should be willing to give up anyone in their farm system not named Amed Rosario to acquire Pollock if he is indeed available.

Ian Desmond

The Mets have had interest in Ian Desmond in the past. The Nationals dangled him out on the trade market before his final year in Washington but the asking price (Noah Syndergaard) was obviously a non-starter for New York. (Imagine the Nationals with Syndergaard right now) Desmond transitioned to the outfield beautifully in 2016 after a few rough seasons defensively as a shortstop. While he was much better in left field for the Texas Rangers this past season, he showed he could handle center field. Last winter he got frozen out of the market with a compensation draft pick attached to his price tag. I’d be a little concerned about giving Ian Desmond a long-term deal at this stage of his career but he is a big right-handed bat that has shown in the past he can hit the ball a long, long way at Citi Field. Desmond, 31, has a draft pick attached to him again and if he gets frozen out of the market again this winter the Mets should pounce.

It looks like right now the Mets plan is to trade Jay Bruce for anything they can get and try to get by with Curtis Granderson in center field in 2017. While Granderson wasn’t horrible in limited playing time in center field this past season, he certainly doesn’t give the range the Mets are going to need out there and is now another year older. The Mets are trying to win now and to do that they are going to have to sure up this defense. Even with Cespedes’ return this is still a significantly below average offense, remember the Mets last year were tied for 25^th in baseball in runs last year despite Cespedes’ fantastic campaign. The Mets are going to need another bat here and they can get the payroll for one by trading both Granderson and Bruce.

What should the Mets outfield look like next season?