Mets 2020 offseason wish list

Expect the Mets to back up the Brink trucks in free agency for the first time in club history this winter. (Photo via NY Post).

With new owner Steve Cohen taking over the New York Mets, it’s obvious to say big changes are coming. Instead of hoping the Mets solve a hole or two like they have the last few winters, huge expectations are here right now to become an instant, perennial contender. It’s okay to dream big Mets fans, as Cohen has discussed upping payroll and investing in not just players but more analytics and front office personnel.

The Dodgers got new ownership in 2012 who drastically improved not just the roster but the entire organization. The franchise hasn’t missed the playoffs since. Cohen mentioned during his press conference while he wants to do things his own Met way, the Dodgers certainly are an organization that should be emulated.

Below should be the Mets offseason wish list that makes them an instant contender. While this list would have been fantasyland just a year ago, it certainly seems realistic based off of Cohen’s comments about reinvesting into the team.

1. Sign Trevor Bauer

Trevor Bauer is clearly the top pitcher on the market and its already clear there is mutual interest between the Mets and Bauer. Sandy Alderson on WFAN last week described Bauer’s unique personality as something that could be a welcome addition to NY. Alderson brought up how baseball is an entertainment industry first and foremost. Bauer is a very intelligent pitcher who Alderson said could help the Mets out with new ideas when it comes to pitching.

Bauer has also made it clear he would have interest in pitching for the Mets. Bauer put up a YouTube clip which was around 15 minutes of praising Steve Cohen’s press conference and social media approach to addressing the fans. The title of Bauer’s video is “Steve Cohen’s BRILLIANT start”.

The main question with Bauer isn’t how his personality will fit in a major market like New York but what will be his price tag? Bauer has said in the past he will take one-year deals to maximize his future earnings but based on the season he just had, that seems unlikely. Bauer has been inconsistent in his Major League career but finished his ninth MLB season on a high note with a Cy Young award and a 1.73 ERA. Top of the rotation pitching is in short supply so even in this depressed free agent market, Bauer will be paid like an ace. While the timing couldn’t be any better for Bauer’s free agency, he’s not exactly a consistent ace. Look at his ERA each of the last four seasons, 4.19, 2.21, 4.48 and 1.73. Across those four seasons, Bauer has a 3.46 ERA, a good pitcher but not the elite ace that he’ll be paid as.

Trevor Bauer says he's never signing a long-term deal. Only one-year contracts.

Why? Turns out he made a bet with a friend: If he ever signs a multi-year deal, the friend gets to shoot him in the nuts with a paintball gun from 10 feet away.

Full podcast: https://t.co/hvN9x1gPKo pic.twitter.com/9l3z7PHLGz

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 6, 2018

Bauer has often expressed an interest in signing one-year deals every year to always pitch for a contender. Plus there’s this bet … Will Trevor Bauer hold up his side of the bet with his best friend about signing a multi-year deal?

Despite the small-sample size, is it possible Bauer figured something out this season? While his Cy Young season was just 11 starts, 100 strikeouts in 73 innings is far from a fluke. The upside is certainly there for Bauer to perform similarly in future seasons.

A rotation of Jacob deGrom, Bauer, Marcus Stroman, David Peterson and eventually (hopefully) Noah Syndergaard is the type of rotation that gets into the playoffs and has a legit chance at a championship.

The last time the Mets got to the World Series was based on their pitching. Signing Trevor Bauer is the first step in solidifying a rotation that desperately needs top of the rotation help.

2. Sign George Springer

While the Houston Astros have already re-signed Yuli Gurriel and have shown interest in bringing back Michael Brantley, there has been very little reporting that the Astros will spend the big dollars necessary to retain George Springer.

George Springer is the two-way centerfielder the Mets have been lacking since trading Carlos Beltran away nearly a decade ago.

There is certainly concern about how good the Astros hitters are after the sign-stealing scandal, but Springer didn’t regress much this season (.265/.359/.540 in 222 PAs). What also makes Springer special is he’s been one of the better postseason hitters over the last decade with 18 home runs and a .925 OPS over his last 56 playoff games. Springer is 31 so the question is how will his centerfield defense decline as he gets into his mid-30’s. The hope is the Mets can sign him to a five-year contract and find a new center fielder in year three or four, moving Springer into a corner at that time. Like Bauer, there really isn’t an adequate replacement at his position if the Mets choose elsewhere on the free agent market. The next best centerfielder on the open market is 30-year-old Jackie Bradley Jr. who is a career .239/.321/.412 hitter, pass. As Springer went, so did the Astros and the hope would be he could do the same for what could be a special Met lineup.

George Springer’s infectious energy at the top of the Houston lineup has led to countless comeback Astros victories. (Photo via Houston Chronicle).

Expect the Mets to land a big hitter in free agency, they’ve already shown interest in Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna is a big bat but the Mets need a center fielder, not another LF/DH type at the moment.

3. Extend Michael Conforto

Michael Conforto had a breakout 2020 and it makes a lot of sense to see if the Scott Boras client would consider a long-term extension before he hits free agency. Conforto will get a decent raise in arbitration on his $8 million 2020 salary. Could an extension similar to Justin Upton’s five-year, $106 million contract with the Angels make sense for the Mets? Upton had more MLB experience than Conforto when he signed his deal but since that deal is a few years old, (factoring in inflation) this could make some sense. An outfield duo for most of the decade of Springer and Conforto could be special offensively.

From August 5th, 2020: Steven Inman discusses why this is the right time to extend Michael Conforto.

It makes a lot of sense for the Mets to also look at some of their other position players as candidates for long term extensions. The sooner the Mets lock those young players up such as Jeff McNeil, Dominic Smith and Pete Alonso, the cheaper they will be long term. Conforto is looking at $100 plus million because the Mets didn’t explore this possibility when signs of the breakout were appearing. Again, it takes two to tango and Boras may apt for Conforto to hit free agency but Boras clients have signed extension close to free agency before, such as Stephen Strasburg and Jered Weaver.

4. Resist the temptation to trade for Francisco Lindor

You just bought your hometown franchise and the fanbase looks at you like the savior. I bet it’s awfully tempting to make that franchise-altering move and acquire a superstar, middle of the diamond player to immediately put your stamp on the team. Cohen and the Mets need to resist that temptation and let him get traded elsewhere.

Francisco Lindor is in the final year of arbitration and will become a free agent in 2021. This means a team isn’t just paying the Indians prospects but also in terms of a close to $300 million dollar contract. Lindor is likely worth that money as a dynamic shortstop and middle of the order bat but the Mets have spent most of their prospect depth over the last two years under Brodie Van Wagenen. This means the Mets will likely have to include big league talent in the deal for Lindor. Speculation has come up this could mean Andres Gimenez and more importantly Jeff McNeil. McNeil is a career .319/.383/.501 hitter in three seasons as a Met. The sample size is large enough now to show that he’s no fluke and I can’t imagine trading him as part of a bigger package for a rental player, no matter how good Lindor is. Now maybe the asking price on Lindor decreases as the winter goes on and we can discuss this idea further but that is unlikely.

The trade for Lindor now supporters compare this to the Mookie Betts trade, where Betts signed long term in LA, won a World Series and never reached free agency. Yes, the same thing could happen to Lindor on his new team as well. Having said that, there are plenty of 2021 All-Star shortstop options available for the Mets in a year besides Lindor such as Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Javier Baez & Carlos Correa. It is likely that a couple of them could sign long term deals before they hit free agency. With that said, the odds that none of them hit the open market is remote at best. Sandy Alderson has acknowledged that the upper levels of the minors are barren. Amed Rosario and Gimenez can handle shortstop and the No. 9 spot in the lineup for a year (assuming the DH is back again because why wouldn’t it be) and then the Mets can make shortstop a top priority in a year if neither of those homegrown players show they can handle the full-time role.

5. Finally fix the bullpen

Death, taxes and the New York Mets bullpen underachieving are the only things certain in this world but with a new owner comes new possibilities. Could one of these possibilities be the Mets finally fixing their bullpen? Absolutely and this is a great winter to try it.

The Indians declined a relatively cheap club option on closer Brad Hand and shockingly no team in baseball claimed him. Hand, 30, has a 2.70 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over his last five seasons as one of the more underrated bullpen weapons in the game. The entire baseball industry decided he wasn’t worth picking up for a $10 million 2021 salary and he went unclaimed. This means if you are one of the few franchises willing to spend this winter, not only can you revamp your roster, but you can also get really great bargains too.

Hand should be considered, as should Athletics closer Liam Hendriks, as the free agent struck out 161 in 110.1 innings over his last two seasons in Oakland. Certainly don’t expect the small market A’s to spend wildly in free agency. Expect the Brewers to dangle dynamic closer Josh Hader in trade discussions again this winter as he gets pricier but with so many interesting free agent options, the Mets should preserve their prospects. The Mets should also move Seth Lugo back to the bullpen where he’s at his best. It’s been made very clear that he reportedly prefers to start but he’s just such an impact pitcher out of the bullpen, it makes too much sense to move him back to relief for good. The Mets could find a middle of the rotation starter like Charlie Morton or Jake Odorizzi on a one-year deal to fill Lugo’s rotation spot. By acquiring one or even both of Hendriks and Hand and moving Seth Lugo back to the bullpen, the Mets have the makings of a great bullpen. Not only are Lugo, Hand & Hendriks great relievers, but they all have experience in a variety of bullpen roles. The Mets must get bullpen insurance in case Edwin Diaz blows up again.

6. Sign James McCann

While J.T. Realmuto is the best catcher in baseball and available on the free agent market, it’s scary to commit 100+ million to a catcher who will be 30 before Opening Day. Has a large, long-term contract for a catcher ever worked out for a team before? Buster Posey and Joe Mauer were being transitioned to first base long before the final years of their contracts (Posey is still owed $22.177,778 in the final guaranteed year in his contract in 2021). The Blue Jays last year paid $16.4 million to get the Dodgers to take the final year of Russell Martin’s contract off their hands.

It makes much more sense to make catcher a year-to-year position because it’s just so taxing. Willson Contreras would be the perfect fit but it’s unclear what the Cubs would want for him (it would take a big haul). Veteran James McCann is the best solution here as he is a solid defensive catcher who has learned how to hit big league pitching in his two seasons with the White Sox, slashing .276/.334/.474 across 587 plate appearances. McCann is hardly a star catcher but he’s solid enough to drive in some runs batting eighth, while more importantly handling a very good pitching staff. McCann could likely be had on a two-year $26 million contract. The money the Mets are saving on his deal compared to signing Realmuto is going towards Bauer & Springer’s large contracts.

Again, this is the Mets offseason “wish list” meaning if they fall short of doing all of these things, it’s far from a disaster. Having said that, there is no reason not to expect an eventful offseason where many of these things listed above could happen.

Now it’s your turn. Leave in the comments below your Mets offseason wish list. Let’s Go Mets!

First base is becoming a problem for the Mets

By Steven Inman

Kennys Vargas could be had on the cheap for the Mets

The New York Mets have been looking for a long-term option at first base since the Carlos Delgado era ended nearly a decade ago. Since then, the Mets have employed the likes of Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, James Loney plus a few others with only Duda having strung together much success. Even while Duda had a few strong power seasons with the Amazins, Sandy Alderson and his staff considered him a stopgap option the last few years. Over the past 6 seasons, Mets 1B have hit .242/.329/.438, which is in the bottom third of baseball over that time frame. The Mets have struggled offensively the last few years and health has a lot to do with that but strong lineups often have a big slugger at first base. The Mets haven’t had a consistent All-Star caliber hitter at first since Delgado. This year should be more of the same, so let’s examine who the Mets can look towards at this key position.

Internal Candidates

Adrian Gonzalez – Gonzalez has not had a good spring after having a dismal 2017 season, where he hit just 3 home runs in 71 games. With that said it seems pretty clear that he is the Mets choice to start the season as the 1^st baseman. He still carries a quality glove and has a tremendous track record of All-Star production before 2017. He’s only costing the Mets the league minimum so it wasn’t a huge risk to bring the 5-time All-Star to camp. The main risk with Gonzalez comes from his influence in the clubhouse. I say that because he intentionally missed the World Series with the Dodgers to go on vacation with his family in Europe. The Dodgers couldn’t have been thrilled with that who then convinced him to waive his no trade clause a few months ago to go to Atlanta where he would be cut. If Adrian hits this season he will remain the Mets first baseman.

Dominic Smith – The Mets 2013 first round pick seemingly has squandered his opportunity to be an everyday player in New York for the foreseeable future. Dom pretty much needs to get healthy and for Gonzalez to struggle to get another opportunity. He had just a .658 OPS in 183 PA’s last season with the big club. Smith also really struggled defensively and has missed most of Spring Training with a quad injury. The perception was Dominic Smith had a shot at the Opening Day roster with a strong camp. He was benched early on in camp for being late one day, scouts have questioned his conditioning and he hasn’t been comfortable enough to run with the quad, let alone get back in a game. Dominic Smith’s Met career is in jeopardy just when it was getting started.

Peter Alonso – For the last few years, there has been a pretty even split in the Mets front office on who is the first baseman of the future, Dominic Smith or Peter Alonso. Alonso, 23, has hit in every minor league stop he has been in and is probably the most likely candidate on this list now to be the Mets long-term first baseman. Alonso’s signature trait, his power, could be a game changer in New York. The University of Florida product hit 18 homers in just 93 games in the minors last season. Alonso is a big kid who has a big strike zone so K’s could be an issue as he moves up. He might not be in the Mets plans for a majority of this season (he only has played in 11 games above High-A) but this is a bat to keep an eye on. Dominic Smith needs to get on a field and produce quickly as Alonso is right on his heels now.

External Candidates

Adam Lind – Lind, 34, has played with four different clubs (TOR, MIL, SEA, WSH) over the last four seasons. You would think with his production in that span (.280/.345/.466 in 1,621 PA’s) he would stop bouncing around but the 12-year vet was forced to sign a minor league deal with the Yankees in a very slow free agency. After it looked like he wouldn’t make the team with the addition of Neil Walker, Lind was granted his release. Lind has always mashed right-handed pitching to the tune of .288/.348/.504. He wouldn’t cost much more than the league minimum and pairing him with the lefty mashing Wilmer Flores (.862 OPS against LHP in 2017), could give the Mets one of the best platoon situations in all of baseball.

Kennys Vargas – The former Twin who has drawn David Ortiz comparisons by many was designated for assignment last week by Minnesota. They have a few more days to find a trade for him before he can become a free agent. The 27-year old has shown flashes of massive power but was never able to stick as a full time 1B or DH in Minnesota. The addition of Logan Morrison, who slugged 38 homers in Tampa last season, made Vargas expendable in Minnesota. Vargas hit 21 homers over the last two seasons, in just 441 PA’s. His strikeouts are probably a huge concern for interested teams but Vargas could be worth a flier. He also has just two full seasons of MLB service, so should he be able to stick on a roster, he will be cheap and under control for a long time.

It seems as if the Mets are committed to giving Adrian Gonzalez the first crack to solve this position. My choice would be a Lind/Flores tag team at first. They would be smart to check in on Lind as soon as possible and Lind would likely be interested in coming to Queens with the amount of playing time likely available.

Who do you think should be the Mets first baseman in 2018 and beyond?

The Mets should trade for Jason Kipnis

By Steven Inman

Photo via CBS

If you’re reading this, you probably already know it’s been a very quiet offseason for the New York Mets. The team brought in 2017 breakout reliever Anthony Swarzak early on and re-signed Jay Bruce to a 3-year deal Wednesday. This has been the slowest moving MLB offseason in recent memory and there are still plenty of players available that can turn the Mets into a contending club before it’s time to report to Port St. Lucie next month. The Mets could use a starting pitcher and another reliever but it appears Sandy Alderson and his staff has made solving second base a priority. The issue the Mets are having is they’re trying to drastically cut payroll and don’t seem to have the prospects necessary to acquire talent in trades. Despite not having a lot of chips at the table, the Mets can still get their man. Second basemen like Ian Kinsler and Dee Gordon (Dee will play CF in Seattle) were traded for little more than salary relief earlier this offseason. The player the Mets should grab will be tougher to acquire than just a salary dump but he’s worth looking into. That player is Jason Kipnis.

Kipnis, 30, is coming off the worst season of his 7-year MLB career. He was banged up and missed about half of the season with injuries. He didn’t really hit and eventually the Indians decided to move AL MVP candidate Jose Ramirez to Kipnis’ position at 2B and move Jason to center field. The move held mix results for Kipnis and he is expected to move back to second should he stay in Cleveland in 2018.

Kipnis has been in trade talks all winter but the Indians have reportedly been reluctant to move the 2-time All-Star. Kipnis in 2015-16 before his injury plagued year, hit a healthy .289/.357/.460 in nearly 1200 at-bats. During those seasons Kipnis was also a very strong defensive player at 2B so the Indians shifting him to the outfield, where he hadn’t played since 2009 rookie ball was strange. His contract isn’t cheap which is probably why Cleveland is even considering moving him. Kipnis is owed around $13.7M in 2018, $14.7M in 2019 and then has a $16.5M club option for 2020. With that said if Kipnis can come close to his 2015-16 numbers he is a nice bargain for whatever club he is on.

It’s unknown what the Mets could give up that would intrigue the contending Indians. After losing Bryan Shaw to Free Agency they can probably use another reliever. Would the Indians have interest in AJ Ramos and prospects in a Jason Kipnis deal? If I were the Mets I’d have to explore it. While Ramos is expected to be a big part of the Mets bullpen, his salary will jump via arbitration from the $6.55M he made in 2017. The money the Mets could save could allow them to make another big move such as upgrading their starting rotation or look into another reliever to replace Ramos.

When considering the Mets’ payroll remember Jay Bruce’s 3-year $39M deal is backloaded this season, perhaps in an effort to let Sandy Alderson make another big move.

It’s strange to see a quality player like Jason Kipnis reportedly available at arguably his lowest value but there have been similar salary dumps across baseball this offseason. Time for the Mets to take advantage.

The Mets should bring in Jon Jay this winter

By Steven Inman

Photo from Chicago Tribune

We’re well aware at this point how much the Mets need to add externally after a disastrous, 70-92 season. The team is going to have to add a 3B or 2B, bullpen help and another starting pitcher. Another piece they’re going to need is an additional outfielder. Yoenis Cespedes missed 81 games this season, Michael Conforto underwent major shoulder surgery and could miss a chunk of 2018 and Juan Lagares has not shown he can stay healthy at the major league level in his big league career yet. Obviously with so many needs and payroll coming down a reported $15-$20M, Sandy Alderson and his staff really can’t afford to spend big bucks on a major outfielder. The perfect guy to compliment the Mets outfield is Jon Jay.

Jay, 32, has been a solid table setter for the Cubs this season. He has stops on his baseball card in St. Louis and San Diego prior to signing a one year $8M deal with Chicago last winter. The Mets might be banking on Juan Lagares and Brandon Nimmo platooning in center field to start next season but that would be a mistake. The Mets must start to accrue depth, so they can have a plan B if/when everyone gets hurt again. If Conforto is in fact not ready for the season, Nimmo and Lagares would be forced to play every day and the Mets 4^th outfielder would be someone like Matt Reynolds, who hasn’t distinguished himself in the majors yet.

Jay hits lefties and righties at a great clip (.288 career vs LHP, .289 vs RHP). He is not a guy with much power but he can play all 3 outfield positions well and won’t break the bank. Jay just finished a 1-year, $8M contract with the Cubs and will likely get around the same money next season. Jay has said publicly his preference is to return to the Cubs, who have advanced to the NLCS or further the last 3 years but with the surplus of outfielders in Chicago, the Cubs may be inclined not to negotiate a new contract with Jay.

With the amount of injuries the Mets endured last season (and for the last decade) it would be smart for the club to start to accrue depth. By signing and starting Jay, the Mets would be in a position to have Brandon Nimmo and Juan Lagares as late inning pinch hitters and defensive replacements. Plus they could step in as starters should one of the Mets outfielders get hurt or in the likely event Conforto isn’t ready for the opener.

Does an outfielder like Jon Jay make sense for New York?

The Mets would better off non-tendering Matt Harvey

By Steven Inman

Photo from NY Times

In what has been a disastrous year for the New York Mets, perhaps no player has been more disappointing than the Mets former ace, Matt Harvey. After leaving the mound in the 9^th inning in Game 5 of the World Series 2 years ago, it has been all downhill for the right-hander. The last two seasons, Harvey has been totally ineffective with a dip in his fastball velocity by around a full mile per hour in each of the last two seasons. As a result of that, Harvey is throwing his fastball slightly less and his slider more. Harvey is in rare territory here as a pitcher trying to successfully return from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome.

It’s been difficult to find a pitcher to undergo this surgery and come back just as effective as he was before. Not saying it’s impossible, but the early results have been very discouraging. Harvey has a 5.82 ERA and has let up a whopping 17 homers in just 77.1 innings. (2.0 HR per 9) He has given up a ton of hard contact and doesn’t seem to be fooling hitters these days. As a player who has one final year of arbitration next season, it’s time for the Mets to let go of Harvey. In arbitration, whether it makes sense or not, it’s extremely rare for a player to get a pay cut. Matt Harvey is making $5.125 million this season so he will make slightly more if offered salary arbitration.

The Mets have question marks all over their team. With pretty much every top prospect in the organization already promoted to Citi Field, this farm system isn’t going to be able to contribute much in 2018. Sandy Alderson and his staff are going to have to find a second baseman, a third baseman, another starting pitcher, bullpen help and perhaps a corner outfielder with Michael Conforto in jeopardy of missing a chunk of next season. All of that is with the Mets saying it’s likely the team sticks with their current catching duo. Sandy Alderson acknowledged that the club’s payroll is likely to slightly decrease from the $145-150M it started this season as. With so many holes still to fill, paying Harvey $6M without any signs that he can be close to the pitcher that he was is probably not a great use of resources.

It’s highly unlikely Harvey would get $6M guaranteed somewhere if the Mets non-tendered him. If the team didn’t offer him arbitration, they could always bring him back on a smaller, incentive laden contract.

Harvey has had one of the more roller coaster careers an athlete has had in New York. The 28-year old went from the Dark Knight to getting booed in the blink of an eye. His agent Scott Boras along with Harvey were very apprehensive about the righty pitching throughout the postseason after putting so many innings on his arm coming off Tommy John surgery. Pressure from the Mets along with public pressure from fans and media, convinced Harvey not to shut himself down for the year and ignore his “innings limit”. We’ll never know if his downfall is because of all those IP in 2015, but they surely didn’t help him. Matt Harvey deserves a thank you from all Met fans for putting his career on the line in the pursuit of getting the Mets to that 2015 World Series.  He was magnificent in that game 5 vs Kansas City and if things had gone differently in that 9^th inning, perhaps Met fans would have a different outlook on Harvey today.

Harvey should be remembered as one of the great Met pitchers that helped the club reached just their 5^th World Series since 1962. With that said, it’s time to move on.

The Mets are going to have to make around a 20-game improvement next season if they want to make the postseason, to do that while cutting payroll, the Mets are going to have to make creative decisions like this one.

Should Sandy Alderson regret building around pitchers over hitters?

By Steven Inman

Photo from NY Times

The Mets 2017 season, that started with so much promise, has been completely derailed by injuries to key players. The pitching staff that finished 2016 with the 3^rd best ERA in MLB, has been the WORST in the majors with a 5.01 ERA. The pitchers that the front office believed could lead them back to the World Series have all dealt with injuries (Or in Matt Harvey’s case off the field troubles and regression) this season except for Jacob deGrom, who has been decent, but far from the elite arm he’s been the last few seasons. It must make fans wonder if Sandy Alderson and his team creating the blueprint around young pitchers was the right choice.

When Sandy Alderson came to New York, he had the plan of tearing everything down and following the San Francisco Giants mindset, which was to construct a team around one offensive star (Buster Posey for SF, Yoenis Cespedes for NYM) and pretty much all other offensive players were interchangeable, while building around superior pitching. The trio of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner were as formidable as any rotation in baseball for not one or two, but three championships. That model created a borderline dynasty, but it was short lived. Cain never had an ERA under four after his age 27 season, and Tim Lincecum now 32, is out of baseball. The Giants success while impressive, has a stroke of luck attached to it. Looking back on it, all of those postseason innings Cain and Lincecum threw turned out to just be too much mileage on their arms. The club has had a dismal start to 2017.

The Mets like all other franchises, want to make long runs in the postseason every season. The way their pitching has not been able to stay on the field the last few regular seasons, it’s fair to wonder if they’ll have the ability to do that. Even workhorses like Cain and Lincecum were not able to handle that kind of workload going on deep playoff runs after awhile.

Sandy Alderson did an excellent job of following the Giants model. He waited out long and expensive contracts left behind by the previous Met regime and made some shrewd trades to acquire future starters such as Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler. Offensively, Sandy has made it clear in his tenure with the Mets that home runs and walks are the most important traits he wants his position players to have, while defensive range and athleticism haven’t been considered as important. Hopefully for the Mets sake when the team calls up Amed Rosario in a few weeks, they can improve a very poor defense. The Atlanta Braves are also on record saying during their current rebuild that they’re trying to emulate the starting pitching plan the Mets have committed to.

With that said, there aren’t too many teams that build around pitching in today’s game. Obviously, you need quality pitching to win, nobody is disputing that, but with pitchers being as brittle as they ever have been, does it make sense when rebuilding to build a core around arms? Or does it make more sense when rebuilding with prospects to go after young hitters over pitching like the current Chicago Cubs.

The Cubs went with the opposite strategy of the Mets and Giants, selecting position players at the front ends of drafts such as Kris Bryant & Kyle Schwarber and trading big league pitching for Addison Russell and Anthony Rizzo. The Houston Astros also have a nice young core of position players such as George Springer, Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve. The ‘Stros have enjoyed the majors best record to start 2017.

The story of this Mets era, built around the arms of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler is far from over but at this point it’s a legitimate question if this group can stay healthy enough to win the franchise’s first World Series since 1986. The 5 starters mentioned, who the Mets were hoping would anchor their pitching staff for the next decade, have never pitched a single turn in the same rotation.

When all is said and done will the Mets regret building around pitching over hitting?

With Cespedes back, center field should be next priority for Mets

By Steven Inman

Met fans can rejoice as “La Potencia”, Yoenis Cespedes is now back in Queens and locked up long term. The Mets had to give Cespedes the 2^nd highest average annual value ever, but the team locked up their best hitter. After years and years of payrolls under $90M, the Mets being broke is a thing of the past. Ownership wants to win and they are giving Sandy Alderson the resources to get it done. While the Mets are back to spending big money, they are still being cautious about it. The Mets in the past when they spent big money always seemed to agree to deals one year too long on key contracts such as Pedro Martinez and Billy Wagner. The Mets stood their ground this time on not giving the 31-year old Cespedes a 5^th year and they look very smart today for doing so.

With all that said, the work is not done here just yet. The team now has 4 corner outfielders and no starting center fielder. Based on various reports it seems fairly obvious the Mets plan on trading a corner outfielder with Jay Bruce being the most likely to go. The Mets shouldn’t stop with Bruce, they should trade Curtis Granderson also and get a center fielder. The Mets have never prioritized defense but if they could put Cespedes in left and Michael Conforto in right, planked by a defensive, right-handed, center fielder, the Mets could have one of the best outfields in baseball. Here are a few of their options.

Dexter Fowler

Of the hitters listed here, Dexter Fowler is perhaps the best fit for the Mets. While he will cost a draft pick, Fowler, 30, could be a difference maker for the Amazins. The switch-hitter has been significantly better from the right side of the plate throughout his career which works in this very left-handed Met lineup. Fowler really improved his defensive numbers in center field this year thanks to playing deeper. The questions that would pop up if Fowler can handle center anymore are gone. Fowler is likely looking at a 4 year deal worth around $60M which is what the Mets handed Curtis Granderson 3 winters ago. Fowler was on perhaps the biggest stage in sports when he homered to lead off Game 7 of the World Series to help end a 108-year title drought for the Chicago Cubs so no, New York will not be too much for the Atlanta native to handle.

A.J. Pollock

Photo by CBS Sports

A.J. Pollock is a gifted, 5-tool center fielder who possesses a blend of power, speed and strong range in center field. He is the right-handed bat that would complete the Mets lineup and would make New York a strong threat to the Cubs to get back to the World Series. Pollock will be 29 next week and has 2 years left of club control before becoming a free agent as a key part of the 2018 monster free agency class. After a breakout 2015 season where he slashed .315/.367/.498, Pollock missed 150 games in 2016 following a serious elbow injury. After all the time he missed in 2016 and the Diamondbacks rough season, it’s hard to imagine the Notre Dame product isn’t available. The team already dealt Jean Segura on Thanksgiving, Segura also had 2 years of control left like Pollock. The Diamondbacks look to be rebuilding with a new front office after a disastrous stint with Dave Stewart and Tony La Russa running the ship.  Pollock will make $6.75M this season before going through arbitration in his final year of club control next winter. Despite his low monetary price tag, he will not be cheap under any circumstance in terms of prospects. The Mets should be willing to give up anyone in their farm system not named Amed Rosario to acquire Pollock if he is indeed available.

Ian Desmond

The Mets have had interest in Ian Desmond in the past. The Nationals dangled him out on the trade market before his final year in Washington but the asking price (Noah Syndergaard) was obviously a non-starter for New York. (Imagine the Nationals with Syndergaard right now) Desmond transitioned to the outfield beautifully in 2016 after a few rough seasons defensively as a shortstop. While he was much better in left field for the Texas Rangers this past season, he showed he could handle center field. Last winter he got frozen out of the market with a compensation draft pick attached to his price tag. I’d be a little concerned about giving Ian Desmond a long-term deal at this stage of his career but he is a big right-handed bat that has shown in the past he can hit the ball a long, long way at Citi Field. Desmond, 31, has a draft pick attached to him again and if he gets frozen out of the market again this winter the Mets should pounce.

It looks like right now the Mets plan is to trade Jay Bruce for anything they can get and try to get by with Curtis Granderson in center field in 2017. While Granderson wasn’t horrible in limited playing time in center field this past season, he certainly doesn’t give the range the Mets are going to need out there and is now another year older. The Mets are trying to win now and to do that they are going to have to sure up this defense. Even with Cespedes’ return this is still a significantly below average offense, remember the Mets last year were tied for 25^th in baseball in runs last year despite Cespedes’ fantastic campaign. The Mets are going to need another bat here and they can get the payroll for one by trading both Granderson and Bruce.

What should the Mets outfield look like next season?

The Mets 2016 Offseason Plan

By Steven Inman

Photo by Newsday

A Mets season that was filled with many ups and downs ended on its lowest note as Madison Bumgarner shut down the Mets in the NL Wild Card game at Citi Field. On paper, when healthy, the Mets still have a very good team entering 2017 but if they want to win their first World Series since 1986, or even take the National League East back from Washington, they’re going to have to make some quality decisions. The Mets payroll entered 2016 at around $135 million, its highest since 2011. After acquiring Jay Bruce at the trade deadline, the Mets payroll is in the $140M range now. It’s highly unlikely the club will be able to go much higher than that. Having said that, $140M is a far cry from what the payroll was a few short seasons ago under $85M. The Mets payroll should be in the 6-10 range in baseball which should be enough to support what the Mets are trying to do. With huge raises in arbitration coming for some key Mets, plus Neil Walker accepting the qualifying offer at $17.2M the Mets aren’t going to be able to add much new money so they’re going to have to get creative.

Here are the annual MLB Trade Rumors arbitration projections for the Mets.

• Lucas Duda – $6.725MM
• Rene Rivera –$2.2MM
• Addison Reed – $10.6MM
• Matt Harvey – $5.2MM
• Jeurys Familia – $8.7MM
• Zack Wheeler – $1.0MM
• Josh Edgin – $800K
• Travis d’Arnaud  – $1.7MM
• Wilmer Flores  – $1.9MM
• Jacob deGrom – $4.5MM

Rene Rivera is likely a non-tender guy (who could be brought back at a smaller salary) but the rest of these players will be here, barring a trade. The Mets need to improve their offense and maybe address the bullpen as Jeurys Familia is probably looking at a lengthy suspension for an alleged domestic violence incident. Sandy Alderson and his front office have their work cut out for them but the correct moves can bring Queens a title. Here is what they should do.

 

1. Re-sign Yoenis Cespedes to play left field
   

   Yoenis Cespedes must be the Mets #1 priority this winter

Yoenis Cespedes has been a very polarizing figure since arriving in New York at the 2015 trade deadline but make no mistake about it, the Mets are a completely different team when the Cuban slugger is healthy. When Cespedes did not play in 2016, the Mets had a 13-17 record. He’s a complete game changer, especially as a left fielder. He really struggled range-wise in center field and the amount of running required for that position was taxing on his legs. Keeping him in left field will make the Mets defense better and give Cespedes a better chance of staying healthy. I think at the end of the day Cespedes would return to the Mets on a 4 year deal worth a little over $100M with another opt-out involved in the contract. The Mets are a little concerned not over dollars with Cespedes but the length of any deal. It’s fair to wonder if Cespedes would give an all-out effort if he was not playing for a huge payday but #52 is definitely worth taking that risk.

2. Sign Dexter Fowler

It’s hard to imagine the Mets finding the funds to sign Cespedes and CF Dexter Fowler but the speedy outfielder is the perfect fit. Fowler would give the Mets an actual center fielder at spacious Citi Field instead of letting a corner guy like Michael Conforto, Curtis Granderson or Yoenis Cespedes patrol out there. Fowler is an on-base machine at the top of a lineup and really improved his defensive metrics this season thanks to playing deeper in the outfield. He is probably looking at a 4-year deal at around $15M a season but at just 30 years old he should be able to hold up health wise. Fowler just helped the starving Cubs fan base end a 108 year title drought so I don’t think the bright lights of New York City would be too much for him. With that said, if the Mets sign Fowler they would have to forfeit a draft pick.

So how can the Mets afford Fowler and Cespedes you may be wondering?

3. Trade Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson

Both Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson are in the final years of their contracts and in my opinion the Mets would be better off letting the two conclude their deals elsewhere. Both are lefty swinging corner outfielders who really don’t fit on the same team. It didn’t make much sense to bring Jay Bruce to Queens in the first place. Bruce not hitting for an entire summer in New York should have convinced everyone in the Met front office that they should move on from him, especially with better options available at similar salaries. The Blue Jays thought they had a deal for Bruce done last spring; perhaps they have interest in him again. Granderson’s strong finish to the year will probably be able to entice some team to take on the final year of his deal.While the Grandyman has been a good citizen and was huge in the Mets 2015 postseason run, he will be 36 before Opening Day and is a below average defender due to his declining range and poor arm. Clearing Bruce’s $13M and Granderson’s $15M would give the Mets enough money to sign both Cespedes and Fowler and perhaps pave the way to consistent playing time for Michael Conforto. Conforto could become one of the Mets best hitters if they just gave him the playing time he needs. Both Granderson and Bruce are older guys coming off mediocre years so it’s hard to imagine the Mets getting anything of value for either player but getting their contracts off the books would be huge for the Mets offseason. Getting these two out of the Mets lineup would allow the team’s outfield defense to improve tremendously along with preventing the club from being overly left-handed like they were in 2016.

4. Re-sign Jerry Blevins

Often the most overlooked pitcher in the Mets brilliant 2016 bullpen, Jerry Blevins was terrific in his second season for the Mets and retaining him should be a priority for the Mets. With Familia facing a potential suspension the Mets need to find as many reliable arms as they can get their hands on and Blevins has proven in New York that he can get big outs. Terry Collins was able to push a mostly injured Met group to the playoffs but one of his huge weaknesses as a manager is overusing his best bullpen arms. If the Mets do not find more bullpen help Collins will overuse Addison Reed without a doubt. With big left-handed bats like Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy with the Washington Nationals, the Mets could probably use a second Jerry Blevins, much less lose the one they already have.

The offseason is a tricky time for baseball front offices. All teams enter the winter with holes they would like to address but budgets can cause teams to be unable to fill all of their concerns. The Mets would love to upgrade at catcher and possibly add some rotation insurance after they lost 4 of their 5 young stud starters to season-ending injuries but that is unlikely to happen. If the Mets are able to re-sign Cespedes and Blevins along with adding another key bat (preferably a center fielder) the Mets could be parading down the canyon of heroes next November.

How should the Mets upgrade their team this winter?

To extend their window, Mets should sell not buy

By Steven Inman

The Mets came out of the All-Star break thinking if they could just get a little more offense in the second half they could go on a run similar to the incredible fireworks of last summer. The Mets offense in the first half was embarrassing, headlined by poor at-bats with runners on base. Somehow this Mets lineup has gotten even worse over the last few weeks to the point where the Mets are on the brink of being swept at home by a Rockies pitching staff that entered this series with a 4.87 ERA as a team. Pitchers like Jorge De La Rosa and Tyler Anderson who were badly scuffling, easily shut down the Mets hitters. The Mets have scored just 4 runs in the first 3 games of this series. It has gotten so bad this week for the Mets that they have the Rockies thinking they can compete for an NL Wild Card.

The Mets are batting .202/.279/.318 with men in scoring position on the season, one of the worst triple slash lines with RISP in the history of baseball. While a lot of that is probably just being unlucky, the players must know how bad they’ve been. Asdrubal Cabrera was able to recite his recent 0-30+ AB slump with RISP to reporters after a recent game. There’s a good chance the team’s offensive futility with men on base is in the player’s heads to some degree.

The Mets have been active in trying to resurrect this offense through trades but with a lack of impact bats available it is going to take the last of the Mets farm system to acquire such a hitter. Even a miracle trade for a Jonathan Lucroy won’t save this Met offense. Instead I suggest the Mets turn around and sell.

Now obviously this isn’t going to be the popular opinion coming off a World Series appearance but this team without a major offensive overhaul isn’t going anywhere. The Mets don’t have a true center fielder on the roster except for Justin Ruggiano who they signed Saturday. With Matt Harvey out for the year and Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz clearly not the same dynamic players with their bone spurs, the Mets huge starting pitching advantage is no longer that big of an edge over other clubs.

Instead of trying to deal Zack Wheeler for Jay Bruce again (who doesn’t fit here as another corner outfielder) the Met should turn around and consider dealing free agents to be Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker and Bartolo Colon.

The Mets will get compensation picks for Walker and Cespedes if they depart since they are likely to offer the two arbitration but the Mets should be able to get more in a package in what has been an extreme sellers market.

The Mets really stripped down their farm system last season to acquire all the pieces that helped them reach the World Series. Trading Cespedes who will likely opt-out for a larger deal could bring you an elite prospect like Michael Fulmer who the Mets traded away at this time last year. Fulmer is 9-2 with a 2.50 ERA in 16 starts as a Tiger this season. While the Mets can’t get him back, they can get a good young piece who can really help next season with (hopefully) a healthy starting rotation. So far this month teams have shown they are willing to trade top prospects for rentals. The Yankees who are just a game back in the loss column to the Mets entering Sunday have transformed their farm system by trading elite relievers Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller this week. Now instead of bringing back the same old team next season they will have blue chip prospects like Clint Frazier ready to make an impact in 2017.

While this will never happen as the Mets would never sell coming off a World Series appearance, the season continues to head in the wrong direction and if the Mets could retool here and acquire some assets that could help them in 2017, they could be looking at another trip to the World Series in the not so distant future.Selling off now could be the Mets best chance to extend their window to win a World Series.

Grading the Mets Offseason

By Steven Inman  

  Every March on this site, we grade the Mets winter and it usually involves the word “incomplete”. Sandy Alderson and his front office don’t usually do enough in the offseason to have fans and media change their tune when it comes to the outlook of the New York Mets. After reaching the World Series for the first time in 15 years last season, expectations were at an all-time high for the Mets to put on the finishing touches to what could be a world champion roster. Sandy Alderson and his staff will not be getting an “incomplete” for the acquisitions they put in the blue and orange this winter.

Additions:

As you know the Mets big moves this winter were the re-signings of both Yoenis Cespedes as well as Bartolo Colon. Cespedes was a key cog in the Mets revitalized offense back in July. While the slugger did struggle in the postseason, the Mets are very fortunate to have him returning to their lineup. Expect Cespedes to have another quality year in New York before trying to cash in on the open market next offseason. The ageless Bartolo Colon is returning for his third season in Queens, the right-hander was solid for the Mets over his previous contract and reportedly turned down larger offers to return to the Mets. While Bartolo doesn’t have the same potential this season that the Mets other four starters possess, Colon should be able to eat innings for the Mets this season.

The Mets most underrated move this winter was the trade that sent Jonathon Niese to Pittsburgh in exchange for long-time Pirate Neil Walker. The switch-hitting Pirate is an upgrade defensively for the Mets at second base and is a solid hitter. While Walker has never made an All-Star team in his career, the 30-year old has the potential to continue to be a top 5 second basemen in the National League this season.

Walker’s new double play partner Asdrubal Cabrera gives the Mets some much needed depth. While Cabrera isn’t the most “rangy” of shortstops, he is an upgrade defensively over Wilmer Flores. The move allows Flores to play all over the infield. Perhaps most importantly Flores can now spell David Wright a few days a week at third base. Having Flores as the primary right-handed hitter off the bench is a huge upgrade to what the Mets were throwing out there in May and June last season.

Antonio Bastardo will also be a solid late-inning option for the Mets. Terry Collins has said the 8^th inning will belong to Addison Reed to start the season but if he struggles Bastardo is more than capable of getting the job done.

Subtractions:

While the Mets spent more money this winter than they seemingly have in a decade, they did lose some key contributors from last year’s pennant winning team.

The subtractions start with Daniel Murphy, who was the second-longest tenured Met behind David Wright before the infielder left for a three-year contract with the Mets biggest rival. Murphy had the greatest postseason a Met has ever had, and the Mets certainly do not reach the postseason without Murphy. With that said the Mets made the right decision to move on from No. 28. Murphy is a good player and he should have a solid season in Washington but Neil Walker is just as good of a player as Murphy and the Mets didn’t have to commit to him long term. Throughout his career Walker has shown better power and higher on-base percentages than Murphy. The Mets also get a compensation pick back for losing their NLCS MVP.

Like Murphy, Jonathon Niese was also one of the longest tenured Mets. Niese had an up and down career with the Mets so it was strange to see the front office was able to spin him for Walker straight up. Trading Niese also freed up a rotation spot to let Bartolo Colon return. The Pirates are hoping for a breakout season from Niese after some work this spring with pitching coach Ray Searage. Niese’s contract wasn’t bad for the Mets but he was certainly expendable. The Mets being able to fill a hole like second base in the process made this move even better.

When the Mets acquired Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson back in July the club really seemed to take off. Both players played well as Mets but once Asdrubal Cabrera signed and Ruben Tejada was tenured a contract, it seemed very unlikely either Johnson or Uribe would be back. Johnson re-signed with the Braves while Juan Uribe went to Cleveland to fill the Indians third base hole.

Veteran outfielder Michael Cuddyer also announced his retirement, forfeiting a majority of his $12.5M 2016 salary. Cuddyer’s sudden retirement likely had an impact on the Mets spending.

Mets Offseason Grade: A+

Yes the Mets had a borderline perfect offseason. They filled all of their holes without trading away key prospects or tying up long-term money. The Mets were able to retain or upgrade every spot on their team. Sandy Alderson and company deserve a ton of credit for the turnaround of the New York Mets. While the Mets look impressive on the field, they must now execute as we get closer and closer to Opening Day.