Even with added playoff revenue, Mets better off letting their top free agents walk

By Steven Inman

Daniel Murphy and Yoenis Cespedes will be cashing in this winter

With the World Series now over, 9 Mets have become free agents. The Mets can’t rest on their NL Pennant and must get to work in bringing back or replacing the players they are losing. Sandy Alderson and company as always will be looking for more power but finding players that can play a little defense too wouldn’t hurt after seeing the infield defense struggle the way that they did in the 5 games vs the Royals.

if the goal is to improve the defense obviously fan favorite Daniel Murphy will not be re-signed. Murphy, 30, will be a free agent for the first time in his career if he declines the qualifying offer, which he is likely to do. He has played in 903 regular season games as a Met and is 2nd on the Mets all-time list in doubles. Murphy has had some incredible moments as a Met most notably 7 homers in the first two rounds of the 2015 playoffs and is the second longest tenured Met behind David Wright but it probably makes the most sense for the Mets to let Murphy sign elsewhere and get a draft pick for him. Wilmer Flores would perform better defensively at second base and it would allow the club to look for a more defensive minded starting shortstop. Murphy is likely deserving of a Chase Headley type contract (4 years, $52M) and the Mets with their limited resources are better off using that money to find shortstop/relief help. Despite his poor play in the World Series, Murphy should be remembered fondly by the Citi Field faithful for his amazing postseason.

Yoenis Cespedes is looking for a contract north of $100 million this winter. Based off his strong 2015 regular season if you compare him to similar outfielders, he certainly deserves it. Having said that it would probably be best for the Mets to spread out that money on a number of players. Cespedes was a key factor in the Mets winning their first division title in nine years as his August was one of the best in Mets history and his homer off Drew Storen really seemed to win the Mets the NL East. That being said he had a difficult postseason and is probably best in a corner outfield spot, where the Mets already have Michael Conforto and Curtis Granderson. While the Mets are better off spending their money elsewhere, acquiring Yoenis from the Tigers was one of if not the best move Alderson has made as the Mets General Manager. The Mets should look for a lefty hitting centerfielder to pair with Juan Lagares. A player like Gerardo Parra or Colby Rasmus could work.

Bartolo Colon was a joy for Met fans to watch in 2015. He gave the Mets a chance to win a majority of his time on the mound and his at-bats were must watch tv. After 18 seasons in the big leagues as a starting pitcher, Colon somehow morphed himself into a solid reliever in the playoffs. A reliever that Terry Collins probably should have used more. Colon, 42, is still a serviceable back end starter and likely is looking for a contract in the $6-7M range. While Colon was worth that money for the Mets in 2015, it’s probably best to go with Jonathon Niese in the Mets 5th starter role in the upcoming season.

Tyler Clippard was the move that was supposed to fix the bridge to Jeurys Familia. While that worked at first, Clippard struggled down the stretch and was a disaster in the playoffs. Collins’ loyality to Clippard betrayed him in Game 4 of the World Series. Clippard was unable to get his great changeup down in the zone as a Met and as a result was hit very hard. It is probably best if the Mets look elsewhere for relief help.

The Mets got a lot out of these 4 players in 2015 and while they all have value, it is probably best if the Mets replace these players with cheaper options or even internally. Players like Juan Uribe, Jerry Blevins and Kelly Johnson could have value to the Mets in some type of role and their free agent status should be monitored.

Who should the Mets be looking to re-sign?

Murphy Making the Most of his Final Moments as a Met

By Steven Inman 

Daniel Murphy has been circling the bases a lot recently
Photo from USA Today

In case you haven’t heard by now, Daniel Murphy is having one of the greatest, if not the all-time best postseason a Met has ever had. Murphy is batting .364 with six home runs and 9 RBI in just 8 postseason games. He has struck fear in several Cy Young candidates.

The Mets new slugger has homered in 5 straight games, matching a postseason record set by Carlos Beltran back in 2004 with the Astros. Many consider Beltran’s run with Houston the greatest contract push in the history of baseball. It was a tear that helped Beltran get a seven year $119 million contract with the Mets 10 years ago.

Coincidentally Murphy is a free agent this winter and as we at BrokeMets have been reporting for months, Murphy is highly unlikely to be back with the Mets next season. They have discussed Murphy in trades the past few seasons (including this year) and believe a combination of Wilmer Flores and Dilson Herrera can be nearly as productive in 2016. The Mets weren’t thrilled about paying Murphy $8 million this season so giving him a raise along with a 4 or even 5-year contract is highly unlikely.

That being said, if the Mets can win five more games, Murphy along with the rest of this Met team will be remembered and revered like the 1969 and 1986 clubs were. Murphy will own a piece of Mets history and will be beloved in New York long after his time as a major league ballplayer is up. If the Mets can win Game 4, barring something unforeseen Murphy is likely to be named NLCS MVP, an honor that only one other Met has ever had. (Mike Hampton, 2000)

Heading into the Postseason Murphy’s camp was likely looking for a contract near what Chase Headley got from the Yankees last winter (4-years $52 million) where they would ultimately settle for a Martin Prado type contract. (4-years $40 million) Now after one of the greatest power streaks over the last decade of postseason baseball, Murphy is likely to command Chase Headley money which probably thrills the Mets front office.

The Mets are probably ecstatic that Murphy continues drive up his price. First off and most importantly, Murphy is leading the Mets to their 1st World Series berth since 2000. Secondly now the Mets can offer Murphy the $15.8M qualifying offer without a guarantee that he would accept it. If Murphy declines the Mets get a top draft pick should he sign elsewhere. If he accepts the deal (unlikely) then the Mets could trade their postseason hero who will be on another one -year deal. He would still have a market on a $15.8M one-year contract. Jon Heyman reported today that the Mets are now looking to offer Murphy the QO. Lastly now the front office can reasonably justify to the fan base that they tried to keep Murphy by extending him the Qualifying Offer and that their resources are better used elsewhere than matching the large contract he could receive.

A 13th round pick back in 2006 by the Mets, Murphy has given everything he has to the Amazin’s. Last season he was the Mets lone All-Star player and now he and the rest of his Met teammates have gotten the recognition that they now deserve. For someone who works as hard as Murphy it is nice to see a player perform when the lights are the brightest. Continue to enjoy this run Met fans…

Met fans don’t worry about Cespedes being a rental

By Steven Inman 

Yoenis Cespedes has been key to the Mets revival

All season the Mets have been thought of as solid team that is two or three bats away from seriously competing. Things changed last week with the promotion of Michael Conforto and Travis d’Arnaud’s return from a lengthy DL stint. The team all of a sudden looked like it could stay competitive against the big bad Nationals but things changed drastically when Sandy Alderson made the big trade that fans have been clamoring for when he traded top prospect Michael Fulmer and prospect Luis Cessa for Yoenis Cespedes.

Cespedes has been great early on as a Met. The slugger has 5 RBI in 6 games since arriving in New York. He has been a great baserunner and has looked solid in both left field and centerfield. Perhaps most importantly pitchers now are being forced to throw fastballs to Lucas Duda who has torn the cover off the ball since the new lineup addition. The Mets are 6-0 since Cespedes joined the lineup.

Cespedes, 29, will be a free agent this offseason and many have speculated that he could be looking for a contract around what Shin-Soo Choo got from the Rangers a few winters ago, 7 years, $130 million. Many have speculated that with a strong finish that Cespedes can prove that he is a franchise player, capable of carrying a team to the playoffs. If that happens expect the Cuban outfielder to get even more than the $130M.

Even if the Mets were willing to pay that contract Cespedes has a unique clause in his contract that states he must be released from his contract 5 days after the World Series. When you release a player you cannot bring him back to the franchise until past May 15th. So in other words, if Cespedes can’t agree to a contract extension with the Mets by the end of October he will be elsewhere next season. Even if the Mets wanted to commit to Cespedes long-term they likely would have to severely overpay to prevent him from hitting the free agent market.

With all that it is highly unlikely that Cespedes is a Met next season. Perhaps with the Mets playing better and getting more fans at Citi Field it will help add needed revenue needed to replace Cespedes in the lineup next season. The front office clearly understands that the club needs a big bat preferably right-handed behind Duda so even if Yoenis isn’t a Met next season expect them to bring in somebody who can drive in runs.

That being said, on this website and many others like it we no longer need to talk about the future. The Mets are in win-now mode and a very entertaining division chase with the Washington Nationals. The Mets own one of the better pitching staffs in franchise history and are armed with a lineup that is finally component enough not to drag the arms down. The 9-year playoff drought has a legit chance of ending this season. So enjoy it Met fans, I know I will.

Now is the time for the Mets to lock up Jacob deGrom

By Steven Inman

Photo by Newsday

Jacob deGrom has been even better than he was in his 2014 NL Rookie of the Year campaign. He has been the ace of one of the better pitching staffs in major league baseball. As a shortstop up until college, there is little mileage on deGrom’s arm. From a Mets perspective it makes too much sense to lock up the 27-year old to a long term deal this winter.

The Mets have assembled one of the greatest young rotations in franchise history in deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and eventually Zack Wheeler. Unfortunately they will not be able to keep all that talent unless they either double their payroll (a joke) or start trying to lock these guys up now before they start going to arbitration.

The Mets lone 2015 All-Star won’t be a free agent until after the 2020 season but the name of the game here is cost control.

It’s important to look at this from both sides here. Obviously the Mets want to keep all of their young talent as long as they can but from Jacob’s standpoint he was a 9th round pick in 2010 so he wasn’t exactly a bonus baby. Jacob is making just 557K this season so a deal that gives him financial security for life would have to appeal to him more than a guy like Matt Harvey, who will begin going through arbitration this winter.

A deal similar to what Julio Teheran got from the Braves a few winters ago, 6-yrs $32.4M with a team option for a 7th year would make a lot of sense on both sides. The Mets would keep deGrom throughout his whole prime on a cost controlled deal and deGrom would have financial security. The Mets will have to be creative with moves like this if they have any hope to keep their super rotation long term. If the Mets aren’t going to be spending much money on free agents then they should at least be signing their own players.

Definitely something to keep an eye on this winter.

Juan Lagares extension is a steal if he can improve his offense

By Steven Inman

According to various media reports the Mets have agreed to a four-year contract extension with CF Juan Lagares that also has a club option for the centerfielder’s first free agent year. The deal is pending a physical. The contract is expected to be worth around $23 million and is expected to start during the 2016 season.

Lagares would have been a Super Two player this upcoming winter which meant he would have filed for arbitration four times instead of three before becoming a free agent.

Lagares, 26, slashed .281/.324/.382 in 452 plate appearances in 2014 but its his glove that made him one of the Mets better players. Lagares became the third Met outfielder behind Tommy Agee and Carlos Beltran to win a Gold Glove.

On the surface this looks like a questionable decison for the Mets as Lagares’ speciality, which is his defense, doesn’t pay much in arbitration. Lagares has walked just 20 times in each of his two big league seasons. He doesn’t hit many homers or steal many bases so he wasn’t likely to get more than the $20-25 million in arbitration should his offense stay at its current level.

The Mets don’t believe it will. The front office has been very impressed with the work Lagares has done in camp with new hitting coach Kevin Long and believe he will hit better this upcoming year.

The Brewers gave a simialr contract to former Met Carlos Gomez a few years ago before his breakout season. That deal looks like one of the best decisions Brewers GM Doug Melvin has ever made.

Lagares just turned 26 a few weeks ago so there is still time in his bat for improvements. The deal only gives the Mets the possibility of one more year of control over their gold glover with the club option for 2020 worth $9.5 million.

Do you like this aggressive move by the New York Mets?

Mets talking to Lucas Duda about a contract extension

By Steven Inman

According to various media reports, the Mets have discussed a contract extension with 1B Lucas Duda. Duda, 29, hit .253 with 30 homers and 92 RBI in his 2014 breakout campaign. Talks are still considered to be in the “preliminary stage”.

Duda as a Super Two player is already making $4.2 million this upcoming season but won’t be a free agent until after the 2017 season. If the Mets truly believe that Duda can replicate his 2014 season then a four-year extension worth around $30 million could make a lot of sense. There really isn’t a great comparision for Duda so its all really just guessing on what Duda’s contract could look like.

It will be interesting to see what the final numbers of this contract look like should it get done but any extension for the Mets first basemen would likely begin after this season as the Mets have a very tight budget remaining as we get closer to the games at Citi Field.

It’s encouraging that the Mets believe they have the financial flexibility to keep their core players going forward. That may not have been the case a couple years back. Duda’s agent made it clear that he doesn’t want to negotiate a contract in season so if this doesn’t get done now, it won’t get done during the 2015 season.

Do you think the Mets should give Duda a contract extension???

Daniel Murphy would love a contract extension, but an offer isn’t coming

By Steven Inman

David Wright and Daniel Murphy have been the staples of the New York Mets offense over the past four seasons

Mets All-Star 2B Daniel Murphy is entering his final season under contract in 2015 and would love to be with the Mets long term. “I’d love to be here in the future. That, again, is way in the distant future. I’ve got too much anxiety about today to worry about what happens in November.” Murphy said in an article by ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin.

Most in the game would be shocked if the Mets lone 2014 All-Star does not hit free agency next winter.

Murphy, 28, is now the second longest tenured Met on the team behind only David Wright. Both Wright and Murphy have been the lone offensive players in the Mets lineup for years now so it would be difficult to see what the Mets offensive attack would look like without Murphy.

Now with other hitters emerging the Mets have considered moving Murphy out of his #2 spot down to possibly 5th or 6th in the lineup to be able to drive in more runs.

The Mets front office has very little interest in a contract extension with #28 and he is very likely playing out his final season in New York. In fact it is very surprising that he has made it this far in his Met tenure. I wrote last June that Murphy appeared to be a goner from Terry Collins’ club. That article can be found here.

Alderson and company are looking to build an offense around power and on-base percentage, the two lone skills that Murphy does not display in the batters box. Plus the team has many in house 2nd base options for the future such as Dilson Herrera, Matt Reynolds and Wilmer Flores (if he doesn’t work out at SS)

Murphy is scheduled to make $8 million so it was a surprise that the Mets didn’t trade Murph to clear his salary. With the Mets payroll close to $100 million and likely staying at that figure for the foreseeable future, it is difficult to imagine the Mets fitting a long term deal for Murphy into their budget.

Most importantly the Mets are going to have to start paying their young pitchers very soon. If the Mets were going to lock up Murphy it would have been two or three years ago when his price tag was significantly lower. The Mets really can’t now even if they wanted to.

Murphy who will be 30 on April 1st will likely command a four year contract worth somewhere in excess of $35-40 million on the open market. That price can go up depending on the season Murphy has so enjoy him while you can Met fans….

The Mets will lose Zack Wheeler if they don’t lock him up soon

By Steven Inman 

The recent trend in baseball is locking up young stars to long-term deals before they are eligible for arbitration, let alone free agency. These deals are usually very team-friendly, such as the Rays contract with superstar Evan Longoria. Longoria received a six years $17.5 million during his rookie year in 2008. Tampa got a superstar that they drafted on the cheap through his prime and Longoria got financial security. It doesn’t appear as if those deals really exist anymore.

Last winter the Atlanta Braves locked up young star Andrelton Simmons to a seven year $58 million contract. Simmons is still a work in progress with the bat and wasn’t even arbitration eligible until this winter, hardly a discount. I’m a big fan of Simmons but for that price they may have been better off going year to year. The point is by the time these players are in their 3^rd or 4^th year and have established themselves; they are already a fortune to keep.

There just doesn’t seem to be hometown discounts anymore. Another Braves player, Julio Teheran just got over $30 million after just his rookie year. This doesn’t bode well for the Mets and some of their young talent such as Zack Wheeler.

Unless players get locked up during their first two years, they seem to be getting monster contracts. Wheeler in less than 300 big league innings has already proven to be a quality starting pitcher in the big leagues. That means it’s already time to get paid.

The good news is Wheeler,23, won’t be a free agent for five more years, but let’s just say he establishes himself in 2015 as a top of the rotation pitcher. After the season he can tell the Mets he won’t sign long term for under $60 million or so. Another season it goes to $75 million or so and will continue to escalate.

Wheeler was 8-3 with a 2.71 ERA over his last 16 starts of the season.

Homer Bailey of the Reds got six years $105 million last year, not because he is a great pitcher but because he eats innings and was one year away from free agency. Money in baseball is getting out of hand and it is up to the Mets to lock up some of their young talent now like the Braves are doing.

The Mets did a good job of this a few seasons back when they signed Jon Niese to a five-year contract extension. Niese looked promising but with all of his injury questions he was hardly a sure thing at the time. If the Mets brought that contract to Niese today, he for sure wouldn’t sign it. Now Niese is a young left-handed pitcher locked up long-term and could bring a good return in a trade.

If the Mets wait a few years, players like Wheeler or even Matt Harvey may decide to just go year by year in arbitration until they hit free agency where they will sign elsewhere for significant dollars.

A six year contract worth around $40-45 million with a couple of team options would give Wheeler the security he is looking for while ensuring that Wheeler will be a Met throughout his prime.

Yoenis Cespedes could be a fit for the Mets

By Steven Inman

BrokeMets received an interesting tweet Wednesday regarding the Mets potential acquisition of Red Sox slugger Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes could be the bat that could push the Mets into playoff contention but is he a fit?

The Mets will look near and far to add power to their outfield this winter. It will be the team’s #1 priority this offseason and Yoenis Cespedes, now of the Boston Red Sox will be a target for many teams in trade talks this winter. So why would the Red Sox trade their new acquisition? The Red Sox will first try to extend the Cuban Slugger who will be a free agent after 2015. If they are unable to do so they will likely trade him for a piece that can help them in 2015. The Sox hope to contend again next season. The baseball industry doesn’t expect Cespedes to sign an extension this winter.

The Mets have just 38 homers from their outfield this season (half of that from Curtis Granderson) which is 11^th best in the National League. The Mets clearly need another bat and Cespedes’ current 22 homers and 97 RBI would fit in nicely for a team that could desperately use a 100 RBI guy. If you remember the 2013 Home Run Derby you would know that Cespedes would have no problem hitting dingers in spacious Citi Field.

Cespedes could provide the protection that David Wright hasn’t had in the lineup since the Carlos Beltran/Carlos Delgado days.

Cespedes, 28, is not a great defender but he makes up for a lack of range with an elite throwing arm.

The Mets would like to move Granderson to left field this winter but a Cespedes trade would surely mean the Grandy Man staying in right field. Cespedes has never started a game in right field in his career. (275 in LF, 75 in CF)

With all that said, Cespedes is not a great fit for Sandy Alderson’s Mets.

Yoenis Cespedes impressed New Yorkers big time at the 2013 State Farm Home Run Derby at Citi Field

First off  the Mets aren’t paying Cespedes the $90-100 million he’ll be seeking as a free agent next winter. Also the Mets are looking for power but they are also looking for patience, guys with high on base percentages. That is not Cespedes. The outfielder has an OBP of .300 this season after a .294 OBP last season.

Remember Rusney Castillo, a Cuban outfielder who had never played a major league game at the time of his lucrative contract signed a seven year $72.5 million deal a few weeks ago with the Red Sox. Cespedes has established himself as one of the better run producers in the American League so he will be looking to shatter that $72.5 number. Neither the Mets nor the Red Sox would be willing to pay that.

The main issue for the Mets will be the asking price. The Red Sox would probably want Jon Niese in exchange for the 2-time derby champ. While Niese will be dangled for a bat this winter the Mets should only consider moving him for a inexpensive bat under club control for the foreseeable future.

The Mets should look elsewhere to fill their enormous corner outfield need.

The Cespedes debate is a good one and we encourage all fans to tweet @BrokeMets for the chance to turn good tweets into articles.

Why aren’t the Mets executing the second part of their plan???

By Steven Inman

It’s pretty clear what Sandy Alderson’s vision for the Mets is. Acquire as much cheap young pitching as possible and use that young pitching to build up the rest of the team. Well with young talented right-handers like Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero it is pretty clear that the Mets have been putting their plan into the action. At least part 1.

The Mets have ignored the second part of their plan which is almost as important as part one.

The Mets now need to lock up their young talent.

I wrote a few months ago about how the Mets should lock up Zack Wheeler now while they still can on the cheap. You can check out that article here. That article took more backlash than anything I had ever written on BrokeMets. The majority said he needed to prove himself for at least another year or two before considering a contract extension. By then it will be too late.

Yes the Mets have some very nice pitching but by the time they will be ready to contend they will be going to arbitration and getting too expensive to keep. Plus they are going to need to find an offense eventually and power costs money.

As fans we need to stop dreaming of the day of the $140 million payroll again. We must assume that the payroll will stay in the $85-90 million range for the foreseeable future, because it will stay in that range whether we like it or not.  That shouldn’t be a deal breaker.

The Mets will not be able to afford keeping their top pitchers long term unless they get locked up now or very soon.

The Tampa Bay Rays have a payroll even lower than the Mets. Thursday vs. the Blue Jays their announced attendance was around 9,500. The Mets are worried when they get only 25,000 fans to a ballgame. The Rays aren’t making any money but they know how to run their organization. They lock up their pitchers long term. Matt Moore got a contract extension with the Rays after one month in the big leagues. Chris Archer has less MLB service time than Zack Wheeler and just signed a six year deal worth $24 million on Thursday. Baring an injury that deal will be a major bargain for the club. When they don’t sign their pitchers long term they lose them such as what is likely to happen with David Price and what could happen to the Mets.

The Mets should offer Syndergaard and Wheeler similar deals to what Archer got right now. They would get big time payroll relief when the team is ready to contend and could use that money to fix what looks like a very bad Mets offense.

It will be very difficult to extend Matt Harvey as he is injured and is a Scott Boras client. Boras always advises his top clients to test free agency.

Should the Mets begin part 2 of their plan?