Mets 2020 offseason wish list

Expect the Mets to back up the Brink trucks in free agency for the first time in club history this winter. (Photo via NY Post).

With new owner Steve Cohen taking over the New York Mets, it’s obvious to say big changes are coming. Instead of hoping the Mets solve a hole or two like they have the last few winters, huge expectations are here right now to become an instant, perennial contender. It’s okay to dream big Mets fans, as Cohen has discussed upping payroll and investing in not just players but more analytics and front office personnel.

The Dodgers got new ownership in 2012 who drastically improved not just the roster but the entire organization. The franchise hasn’t missed the playoffs since. Cohen mentioned during his press conference while he wants to do things his own Met way, the Dodgers certainly are an organization that should be emulated.

Below should be the Mets offseason wish list that makes them an instant contender. While this list would have been fantasyland just a year ago, it certainly seems realistic based off of Cohen’s comments about reinvesting into the team.

1. Sign Trevor Bauer

Trevor Bauer is clearly the top pitcher on the market and its already clear there is mutual interest between the Mets and Bauer. Sandy Alderson on WFAN last week described Bauer’s unique personality as something that could be a welcome addition to NY. Alderson brought up how baseball is an entertainment industry first and foremost. Bauer is a very intelligent pitcher who Alderson said could help the Mets out with new ideas when it comes to pitching.

Bauer has also made it clear he would have interest in pitching for the Mets. Bauer put up a YouTube clip which was around 15 minutes of praising Steve Cohen’s press conference and social media approach to addressing the fans. The title of Bauer’s video is “Steve Cohen’s BRILLIANT start”.

The main question with Bauer isn’t how his personality will fit in a major market like New York but what will be his price tag? Bauer has said in the past he will take one-year deals to maximize his future earnings but based on the season he just had, that seems unlikely. Bauer has been inconsistent in his Major League career but finished his ninth MLB season on a high note with a Cy Young award and a 1.73 ERA. Top of the rotation pitching is in short supply so even in this depressed free agent market, Bauer will be paid like an ace. While the timing couldn’t be any better for Bauer’s free agency, he’s not exactly a consistent ace. Look at his ERA each of the last four seasons, 4.19, 2.21, 4.48 and 1.73. Across those four seasons, Bauer has a 3.46 ERA, a good pitcher but not the elite ace that he’ll be paid as.

Trevor Bauer says he's never signing a long-term deal. Only one-year contracts.

Why? Turns out he made a bet with a friend: If he ever signs a multi-year deal, the friend gets to shoot him in the nuts with a paintball gun from 10 feet away.

Full podcast: https://t.co/hvN9x1gPKo pic.twitter.com/9l3z7PHLGz

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 6, 2018

Bauer has often expressed an interest in signing one-year deals every year to always pitch for a contender. Plus there’s this bet … Will Trevor Bauer hold up his side of the bet with his best friend about signing a multi-year deal?

Despite the small-sample size, is it possible Bauer figured something out this season? While his Cy Young season was just 11 starts, 100 strikeouts in 73 innings is far from a fluke. The upside is certainly there for Bauer to perform similarly in future seasons.

A rotation of Jacob deGrom, Bauer, Marcus Stroman, David Peterson and eventually (hopefully) Noah Syndergaard is the type of rotation that gets into the playoffs and has a legit chance at a championship.

The last time the Mets got to the World Series was based on their pitching. Signing Trevor Bauer is the first step in solidifying a rotation that desperately needs top of the rotation help.

2. Sign George Springer

While the Houston Astros have already re-signed Yuli Gurriel and have shown interest in bringing back Michael Brantley, there has been very little reporting that the Astros will spend the big dollars necessary to retain George Springer.

George Springer is the two-way centerfielder the Mets have been lacking since trading Carlos Beltran away nearly a decade ago.

There is certainly concern about how good the Astros hitters are after the sign-stealing scandal, but Springer didn’t regress much this season (.265/.359/.540 in 222 PAs). What also makes Springer special is he’s been one of the better postseason hitters over the last decade with 18 home runs and a .925 OPS over his last 56 playoff games. Springer is 31 so the question is how will his centerfield defense decline as he gets into his mid-30’s. The hope is the Mets can sign him to a five-year contract and find a new center fielder in year three or four, moving Springer into a corner at that time. Like Bauer, there really isn’t an adequate replacement at his position if the Mets choose elsewhere on the free agent market. The next best centerfielder on the open market is 30-year-old Jackie Bradley Jr. who is a career .239/.321/.412 hitter, pass. As Springer went, so did the Astros and the hope would be he could do the same for what could be a special Met lineup.

George Springer’s infectious energy at the top of the Houston lineup has led to countless comeback Astros victories. (Photo via Houston Chronicle).

Expect the Mets to land a big hitter in free agency, they’ve already shown interest in Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna is a big bat but the Mets need a center fielder, not another LF/DH type at the moment.

3. Extend Michael Conforto

Michael Conforto had a breakout 2020 and it makes a lot of sense to see if the Scott Boras client would consider a long-term extension before he hits free agency. Conforto will get a decent raise in arbitration on his $8 million 2020 salary. Could an extension similar to Justin Upton’s five-year, $106 million contract with the Angels make sense for the Mets? Upton had more MLB experience than Conforto when he signed his deal but since that deal is a few years old, (factoring in inflation) this could make some sense. An outfield duo for most of the decade of Springer and Conforto could be special offensively.

From August 5th, 2020: Steven Inman discusses why this is the right time to extend Michael Conforto.

It makes a lot of sense for the Mets to also look at some of their other position players as candidates for long term extensions. The sooner the Mets lock those young players up such as Jeff McNeil, Dominic Smith and Pete Alonso, the cheaper they will be long term. Conforto is looking at $100 plus million because the Mets didn’t explore this possibility when signs of the breakout were appearing. Again, it takes two to tango and Boras may apt for Conforto to hit free agency but Boras clients have signed extension close to free agency before, such as Stephen Strasburg and Jered Weaver.

4. Resist the temptation to trade for Francisco Lindor

You just bought your hometown franchise and the fanbase looks at you like the savior. I bet it’s awfully tempting to make that franchise-altering move and acquire a superstar, middle of the diamond player to immediately put your stamp on the team. Cohen and the Mets need to resist that temptation and let him get traded elsewhere.

Francisco Lindor is in the final year of arbitration and will become a free agent in 2021. This means a team isn’t just paying the Indians prospects but also in terms of a close to $300 million dollar contract. Lindor is likely worth that money as a dynamic shortstop and middle of the order bat but the Mets have spent most of their prospect depth over the last two years under Brodie Van Wagenen. This means the Mets will likely have to include big league talent in the deal for Lindor. Speculation has come up this could mean Andres Gimenez and more importantly Jeff McNeil. McNeil is a career .319/.383/.501 hitter in three seasons as a Met. The sample size is large enough now to show that he’s no fluke and I can’t imagine trading him as part of a bigger package for a rental player, no matter how good Lindor is. Now maybe the asking price on Lindor decreases as the winter goes on and we can discuss this idea further but that is unlikely.

The trade for Lindor now supporters compare this to the Mookie Betts trade, where Betts signed long term in LA, won a World Series and never reached free agency. Yes, the same thing could happen to Lindor on his new team as well. Having said that, there are plenty of 2021 All-Star shortstop options available for the Mets in a year besides Lindor such as Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Javier Baez & Carlos Correa. It is likely that a couple of them could sign long term deals before they hit free agency. With that said, the odds that none of them hit the open market is remote at best. Sandy Alderson has acknowledged that the upper levels of the minors are barren. Amed Rosario and Gimenez can handle shortstop and the No. 9 spot in the lineup for a year (assuming the DH is back again because why wouldn’t it be) and then the Mets can make shortstop a top priority in a year if neither of those homegrown players show they can handle the full-time role.

5. Finally fix the bullpen

Death, taxes and the New York Mets bullpen underachieving are the only things certain in this world but with a new owner comes new possibilities. Could one of these possibilities be the Mets finally fixing their bullpen? Absolutely and this is a great winter to try it.

The Indians declined a relatively cheap club option on closer Brad Hand and shockingly no team in baseball claimed him. Hand, 30, has a 2.70 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over his last five seasons as one of the more underrated bullpen weapons in the game. The entire baseball industry decided he wasn’t worth picking up for a $10 million 2021 salary and he went unclaimed. This means if you are one of the few franchises willing to spend this winter, not only can you revamp your roster, but you can also get really great bargains too.

Hand should be considered, as should Athletics closer Liam Hendriks, as the free agent struck out 161 in 110.1 innings over his last two seasons in Oakland. Certainly don’t expect the small market A’s to spend wildly in free agency. Expect the Brewers to dangle dynamic closer Josh Hader in trade discussions again this winter as he gets pricier but with so many interesting free agent options, the Mets should preserve their prospects. The Mets should also move Seth Lugo back to the bullpen where he’s at his best. It’s been made very clear that he reportedly prefers to start but he’s just such an impact pitcher out of the bullpen, it makes too much sense to move him back to relief for good. The Mets could find a middle of the rotation starter like Charlie Morton or Jake Odorizzi on a one-year deal to fill Lugo’s rotation spot. By acquiring one or even both of Hendriks and Hand and moving Seth Lugo back to the bullpen, the Mets have the makings of a great bullpen. Not only are Lugo, Hand & Hendriks great relievers, but they all have experience in a variety of bullpen roles. The Mets must get bullpen insurance in case Edwin Diaz blows up again.

6. Sign James McCann

While J.T. Realmuto is the best catcher in baseball and available on the free agent market, it’s scary to commit 100+ million to a catcher who will be 30 before Opening Day. Has a large, long-term contract for a catcher ever worked out for a team before? Buster Posey and Joe Mauer were being transitioned to first base long before the final years of their contracts (Posey is still owed $22.177,778 in the final guaranteed year in his contract in 2021). The Blue Jays last year paid $16.4 million to get the Dodgers to take the final year of Russell Martin’s contract off their hands.

It makes much more sense to make catcher a year-to-year position because it’s just so taxing. Willson Contreras would be the perfect fit but it’s unclear what the Cubs would want for him (it would take a big haul). Veteran James McCann is the best solution here as he is a solid defensive catcher who has learned how to hit big league pitching in his two seasons with the White Sox, slashing .276/.334/.474 across 587 plate appearances. McCann is hardly a star catcher but he’s solid enough to drive in some runs batting eighth, while more importantly handling a very good pitching staff. McCann could likely be had on a two-year $26 million contract. The money the Mets are saving on his deal compared to signing Realmuto is going towards Bauer & Springer’s large contracts.

Again, this is the Mets offseason “wish list” meaning if they fall short of doing all of these things, it’s far from a disaster. Having said that, there is no reason not to expect an eventful offseason where many of these things listed above could happen.

Now it’s your turn. Leave in the comments below your Mets offseason wish list. Let’s Go Mets!

First base is becoming a problem for the Mets

By Steven Inman

Kennys Vargas could be had on the cheap for the Mets

The New York Mets have been looking for a long-term option at first base since the Carlos Delgado era ended nearly a decade ago. Since then, the Mets have employed the likes of Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, James Loney plus a few others with only Duda having strung together much success. Even while Duda had a few strong power seasons with the Amazins, Sandy Alderson and his staff considered him a stopgap option the last few years. Over the past 6 seasons, Mets 1B have hit .242/.329/.438, which is in the bottom third of baseball over that time frame. The Mets have struggled offensively the last few years and health has a lot to do with that but strong lineups often have a big slugger at first base. The Mets haven’t had a consistent All-Star caliber hitter at first since Delgado. This year should be more of the same, so let’s examine who the Mets can look towards at this key position.

Internal Candidates

Adrian Gonzalez – Gonzalez has not had a good spring after having a dismal 2017 season, where he hit just 3 home runs in 71 games. With that said it seems pretty clear that he is the Mets choice to start the season as the 1^st baseman. He still carries a quality glove and has a tremendous track record of All-Star production before 2017. He’s only costing the Mets the league minimum so it wasn’t a huge risk to bring the 5-time All-Star to camp. The main risk with Gonzalez comes from his influence in the clubhouse. I say that because he intentionally missed the World Series with the Dodgers to go on vacation with his family in Europe. The Dodgers couldn’t have been thrilled with that who then convinced him to waive his no trade clause a few months ago to go to Atlanta where he would be cut. If Adrian hits this season he will remain the Mets first baseman.

Dominic Smith – The Mets 2013 first round pick seemingly has squandered his opportunity to be an everyday player in New York for the foreseeable future. Dom pretty much needs to get healthy and for Gonzalez to struggle to get another opportunity. He had just a .658 OPS in 183 PA’s last season with the big club. Smith also really struggled defensively and has missed most of Spring Training with a quad injury. The perception was Dominic Smith had a shot at the Opening Day roster with a strong camp. He was benched early on in camp for being late one day, scouts have questioned his conditioning and he hasn’t been comfortable enough to run with the quad, let alone get back in a game. Dominic Smith’s Met career is in jeopardy just when it was getting started.

Peter Alonso – For the last few years, there has been a pretty even split in the Mets front office on who is the first baseman of the future, Dominic Smith or Peter Alonso. Alonso, 23, has hit in every minor league stop he has been in and is probably the most likely candidate on this list now to be the Mets long-term first baseman. Alonso’s signature trait, his power, could be a game changer in New York. The University of Florida product hit 18 homers in just 93 games in the minors last season. Alonso is a big kid who has a big strike zone so K’s could be an issue as he moves up. He might not be in the Mets plans for a majority of this season (he only has played in 11 games above High-A) but this is a bat to keep an eye on. Dominic Smith needs to get on a field and produce quickly as Alonso is right on his heels now.

External Candidates

Adam Lind – Lind, 34, has played with four different clubs (TOR, MIL, SEA, WSH) over the last four seasons. You would think with his production in that span (.280/.345/.466 in 1,621 PA’s) he would stop bouncing around but the 12-year vet was forced to sign a minor league deal with the Yankees in a very slow free agency. After it looked like he wouldn’t make the team with the addition of Neil Walker, Lind was granted his release. Lind has always mashed right-handed pitching to the tune of .288/.348/.504. He wouldn’t cost much more than the league minimum and pairing him with the lefty mashing Wilmer Flores (.862 OPS against LHP in 2017), could give the Mets one of the best platoon situations in all of baseball.

Kennys Vargas – The former Twin who has drawn David Ortiz comparisons by many was designated for assignment last week by Minnesota. They have a few more days to find a trade for him before he can become a free agent. The 27-year old has shown flashes of massive power but was never able to stick as a full time 1B or DH in Minnesota. The addition of Logan Morrison, who slugged 38 homers in Tampa last season, made Vargas expendable in Minnesota. Vargas hit 21 homers over the last two seasons, in just 441 PA’s. His strikeouts are probably a huge concern for interested teams but Vargas could be worth a flier. He also has just two full seasons of MLB service, so should he be able to stick on a roster, he will be cheap and under control for a long time.

It seems as if the Mets are committed to giving Adrian Gonzalez the first crack to solve this position. My choice would be a Lind/Flores tag team at first. They would be smart to check in on Lind as soon as possible and Lind would likely be interested in coming to Queens with the amount of playing time likely available.

Who do you think should be the Mets first baseman in 2018 and beyond?

The Mets Report Podcast: The Post Trade Deadline Era

By Steven Inman

Join Rob DeLucia and I as we breakdown what the Mets did at the Trade Deadline, how the Mets’ payroll will look going forward, early impressions of Amed Rosario, what we hope to see out of Dominic Smith and what does the future in New York look like for Steven Matz, Zack Wheeler & Terry Collins?

Thanks for listening as always and any questions you want answered on the show, leave them in the comments section below!

https://soundcloud.com/rob-delucia/mets-report-podcast-august-2017

Mets best chance to fix lineup is through system

By Steven Inman

Sandy Alderson’s top prospects are highly regarded throughout baseball

The Mets offense has been dismal this year. Sandy Alderson has attempted to build an offense of power and patience but to date has failed miserably. The Mets are 25th in both runs and slugging percentage. Alderson signings such as Michael Cuddyer and Curtis Granderson haven’t displayed any reason for hope that the Mets offensive struggles will change any time soon. That being said, there is hope and that hope comes from the Mets minor league system.

The Mets collected a great group of minor league arms with Steven Matz the last of that group still in the minors. Matz should be in the bigs around the All-Star Break. All of those pitchers have lived up to the hype so far. Now we could be seeing the new wave of Mets prospects, the position player side.

Led by 2014 first round pick Michael Conforto, the Mets have quietly accrued a group of solid position player prospects. Here are the guys that could balance out the Mets lineup in the next few seasons.

Michael Conforto- Although Michael is the newest player to the Mets farm system of this group, he likely will be the quickest one to the majors. Conforto is hitting .375 in Binghamton (AA) after starting the season in St. Lucie. Conforto has a quick bat and looks to be an upcoming star. Ideally he gets to Las Vegas (AAA) by September if the 51’s make the playoffs, which would allow him to be a phone call away next season. Conforto came into the draft last season with a reputation that he would have to be hidden somewhere defensively but the Mets have been very impressed with his outfield play and his bat will work well in left field.

Dom Smith– This sweet swinging first baseman is probably awhile away but the Mets have been impressed with his at bats. Don’t be alarmed by the lack of power (2 homers) as St. Lucie and the Florida State League is a very difficult environment to hit. Smith reminds me of a James Loney type of player. Expect him to hit for a high average but home runs will always be a question when you play first base.

Gavin Cecchini– Perhaps the biggest surprise of all of the Mets minor leaguers, Cecchini has emerged as a legitimate shortstop option for the Mets going forward. He is hitting over .320 in Binghamton (AA) and has played a strong shortstop defensively. There was serious question whether his bat would hit enough for him to play one position everyday. Now it’s looking like Gavin can stick. He’s only 21 years old so expect him to continue to grow offensively.

Brandon Nimmo- Sandy Alderson’s first draft pick as Mets General Manager got off to a rocky start to his Met tenure. Nimmo has slowly moved up the minor league ladder and can legitimately get to the big leagues by the end of next season. He was on the DL for a little bit but like Conforto it would be a big accomplishment if the outfielder could reach Las Vegas (AAA) this season. The concern with Nimmo is can he hit left-handed pitching. If not he’ll be a fine platoon player in the Mets outfield.

Amed Rosario– Out of this group of prospects, Rosario is probably the rawest but most scouts seem to like him more than just about any other Met prospect. The Mets aren’t sure if he will stick at shortstop but most think the bat will develop. Don’t expect to see Amed anytime soon in the majors however.

Sandy Alderson has rightfully taken a lot of criticism for his sculpting of the Mets lineup but if most of these five position players can hit in the big leagues then Alderson’s tenure as Mets GM will be deemed a success, it’s that simple. All five of these players were signed by Alderson and his staff. According to MLB.com, eight of the Mets top ten prospects are now position players, a drastic change from where the Mets were a year ago.

The Mets are going to have to pay their young pitchers in the next few years so getting impact bats at the major league level making the league minimum would be huge.

Which Met position prospect are you most excited to see?

Mets farm system continues to get better and better

By Steven Inman

If the Mets were right, Michael Conforto can breeze through the minor leagues

When Sandy Alderson became general manager of the New York Mets, his plan was to build a competitive team in the short-term while creating a great minor league farm system in the long-term. While the former hasn’t happened the ladder is actually coming together. The Mets farm was ranked in the mid-20’s when Alderson and company took over. In Keith Law of ESPN’s bi-annual prospect ranking he ranked the Mets farm fourth best in all of baseball.

In Law’s top 50 midseason prospect rewrite (Insiders Only), four Mets prospects made his top 50. Noah Syndergaard (16), Michael Conforto (32) Brandon Nimmo (34) and Dom Smith (49) all made Law’s top 50.

Syndergaard has had a rough year in Triple-A. His ERA is over five, he has spent time on the disabled list, and there is a chance now that we don’t even see him in the majors this season. That being said in the extreme hitter friendly PCL him just racking up innings has to be seen as a positive. Syndergaard is actually only 21 and seems to get better every time he advances a level with exception of this season of course. He should be fine and compete for a rotation spot early next season.

LF Michael Conforto made his professional debut for the Cyclones a few days ago. Unlike other top picks in the Sandy Alderson era, Conforto is expected to reach the big leagues rather quickly. Some have even predicted he would be the first from the 2014 draft class to reach the majors. While I wouldn’t go as far to say that since the Mets are generally much slower at advancing their prospects, Conforto should provide the Mets power rather soon.

Brandon Nimmo is the surprise on this list. He was constantly compared to all-star starter Jose Fernandez after Miami selected their flamethrower one pick after the Mets selected Nimmo. Nimmo didn’t show much power until this season when he escaped Savannah. Savannah’s park has always seemed to zap left –handed hitters of their power. Nimmo is hitting .282 along with a .411 OBP, nine homers and 40 RBI in 92 games between High-A and Double-A this season. Nimmo looks like he can legitimately contribute in some way to the Mets next season.

Lastly Dom Smith has also performed well against older completion in Savannah. The first basemen is hitting .299 with a .357 OBP in a tough place to hit. Like Nimmo it wouldn’t surprise anyone if he breaks out “power wise” next season when he gets away from the Sand Gnats.

It is very surprising to me after all of these years that three of the Mets four top prospects are now position players. The Mets are going to need to continue to develop these guys to help fix what is currently a poor major league offense.

Who should the Mets take first in the 2014 MLB Draft?

Today on BrokeMets.com, we have a special treat for all of our readers. Alex Giobbi, of Minorleaguemadhouse.com has agreed to do a guest post on the Mets plan for the MLB Draft next week. Alex specializes in prospects and I highly recommend this article as well as his website. He looks at the track record of Sandy Alderson’s previous three drafts as Mets GM to determine who can be a target for the Mets with the 10th overall pick.

What name will Bud Selig call for the Mets on June 5th?

With a week remaining before the 2014 MLB Draft kicks off, the Mets have a very big decision to make. Armed with the tenth pick, which was protected from being lost to a team that let go of a big money free agent, the Mets have myriad options for their next big prospect.

Before going into who the Mets should take, let’s take a look at the first round strategy of GM Sandy Alderson.

Ever since Alderson took over as the Mets’ GM, he’s opted to take high ceiling talent out of high school; in fact, of the five first round picks he’s had (this includes the compensatory picks he’s gotten from losing Pedro Feliciano and Jose Reyes), only one, catcher Kevin Plawecki of Purdue University, came out of college. The players he’s taken in the first (and compensatory) rounds are as follows:

2013: Dominic Smith, first baseman, Serra High School, Los Angeles, CA.

Dom Smith is holding his own in Savannah despite being less than a year out of high school.

2014 Team: Savannah Sand Gnats (Low A)

Smith, who was viewed as one of the top hitters in his class, was valued for his stroke as well as his fielding ability. He’s been compared to Adrian Gonzalez, and in a particularly weak year for first base prospects in MLB, he’s ranked second, although he’s made strides to justify that ranking after a slow start in Low-A Savannah. Given the team’s unsurprising trade of former top pick Ike Davis and commitment to Lucas Duda (who will be 31 or 32 by the time Smith makes his MLB debut) it’s almost a certainty that Smith will be playing first base at Citi Field in the latter half of the 2010’s.

2012: Gavin Cecchini, Shortstop, Alfred M. Barbe High School, Lake Charles, LA

Cecchini is a big time hit or miss prospect who was taken for his value as a defensive star. Although he’s had a slow start to his career due to injury, the fact that he’s only 20 years old serves as a reminder that high school talent often takes more time to develop, meaning he could conceivably be held in the minors until 2017, much like Smith. Cecchini seems to be destined to make up half of a double play combo with one of two top international prospects: Dilson Herrera, who was acquired in the Marlon Byrd trade, or Amed Rosario. Whomever is the odd man out in that group is either going to be traded or coerced into playing third base. Should Cecchini lose out on the shortstop battle, he could be tried out as a third baseman, in fact, his older brother Garin is a top third base prospect for the Boston Red Sox.

Kevin Plawecki, Catcher, Purdue University

Kevin Plawecki has moved through the minor leagues much faster than most anticipated.

When Kevin Plawecki was drafted, one of the big things that stood out about him was the fact that he’s a guy who constantly gets on base. A guy who also rarely strikes out, Plawecki reminds some Mets people of Daniel Murphy, except he’s slower and plays a more challenging position. As I’ve made mention before, teams are starting to understand the importance of carrying two starting level catchers on the big league club, and Plawecki with Travis d’Arnaud could actually prove to be a solid combination. Should the Mets opt to deal him, he may have some value for a team that could use a starting catcher, as evidenced by the Mets’ discussions during the offseason between the Diamondbacks.

2011: Brandon Nimmo: Outfield, Cheyenne East High School, Cheyenne, WY

Alderson’s first pick as a Mets GM is either going to be one of the biggest gem finds or a major novelty gone bad. Nimmo, who gained fame for not playing high school ball (Wyoming doesn’t sanction baseball as a sport in interscholastic competition), was valued for his athletic upside. Nimmo has overcome a predictably slow start in the minors and is currently tearing the cover off the ball in High A St. Lucie, enough to land him in the top 100 prospect list at the final spot. Should he continue that pace, expect him to make a return appearance to the Futures Game in Minnesota.

Michael Fulmer, Pitcher, Deer Creek High School, Deer Creek, OK

Fulmer is the only pitcher that Alderson has drafted in the first round, and for good reason. 2011 was a great year for Oklahoma prep pitchers, and Fulmer has followed Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley’s success pattern. Although he suffered a setback from his development after injuring his leg, he should be with the major league club by 2017, likely as a long reliever/spot starter.

—-

Sandy Alderson’s strategy deviated from his predecessor, Omar Minaya, who drafted low ceiling/high floor talent. Although most of Minaya’s choices were destined to be average (or in the case of 2007 and 2008 first rounders Nate Vineyard, Reese Havens and Brad Holt, marred with injury and unfulfilled promise) Minaya does have the claim to fame that his final first round pick, Matt Harvey, is one of the best young pitchers in baseball.

Moving on, the question remains: Who should Alderson select with the tenth overall pick?

Generally, given the amount of time prospects take to develop, coupled with the choice between high school, JUCO and college talent, general managers go with the Best Player Available. Although Alderson didn’t necessarily need a first baseman, and many experts thought he would have gone after a college outfielder like Fresno State’s Aaron Judge, Smith was the best player available.

If we went by the best player available based on Baseball America and MLB.com’s top 200 and 100 prospect lists, then the Mets would have two different choices: Baseball America’s #10 player in their top 200 is LSU ace Aaron Nola, who’s bounced up and down the draft board, going as low as the 20’s and as high as top ten. MLB.com has University of San Francisco outfielder Bradley Zimmer as their ten pick. Zimmer has stayed pretty consistent, getting picked in the top 15 in most mocks.

Looking at the Mets’ top 20 prospects, which is what I use as a basis for my mock drafts, it’s clear that once Noah Syndergaard makes his big league debut, the Mets will not have a legitimate top ten right handed pitching prospect. With Rafael Montero and Jake deGrom likely up for good, and Syndergaard coming up, Alderson, unless he invests his pick in a bona fide arm, will not have a top pitching prospect to advance through the system and excite and distract the fan base. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the options that Alderson has:

First, let’s get one thing abundantly clear: Carlos Rodon will not fall out of the top three. Despite his struggles this year at NC State, Rodon’s still got an impressive resumé, as well as covetable attributes that will make him a top pick. The same goes for Brady Aiken, the prep star from Cathedral Catholic. His stock has risen to the point where he’s in the conversation to be the top pick as well. That, and they are also left-handed pitchers. Tyler Kolek, the consensus top right handed pitching prospect, will also not fall out of the top five.

Let’s take a look at the pitchers that are in range, and that’s 5th best player to 15th best player on Baseball America’s and MLB.com’s lists:

BA:

Jeff Hoffman, East Carolina (6)

Erick Fedde, UNLV (8)

Aaron Nola, LSU (10)

Touki Toussaint, Coral Springs Christian High School, Florida (13)

Tyler Beede, Vanderbilt (15)

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And now MLB.com’s list:

Nola, (5)

Beede (7)

Hoffman (8)

Grant Holmes, Conway High School, South Carolina (12)

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In my two mock drafts, I had the Mets taking a right handed pitcher for the reason stated above: They will need to add a right handed pitching stud in order to balance out their top ten prospects. In the first mock, I picked Touki Toussaint: a high school arm whose raw talent, coupled with his loose arm could make him a deadly young pitcher with #2 starter potential. However, given Alderson’s Moneyball background, which actively discourages the drafting of prep arms in the first round, the chances of Toussaint wearing a Mets jersey seem slim.

In the second mock, I had the Mets taking Tyler Beede. Beede is a familiar name, as he was a first round pick three years ago by the Toronto Blue Jays. However, Beede decided against going pro and went to play for Vanderbilt. Beede’s game is great, but some mechanical fine tuning could make it better. He’s been consistently challenging both Nola and Rodon as the top college pitcher this year, and his Golden Spikes nomination last year indicates he has high level pro potential.

If I were Alderson, I’d want a battle tested pitcher, a pitcher that has faced top flight competition. Right off the bat, that eliminates Toussaint and Grant Holmes, a big pitcher from Conway High School. Because high school baseball talent is relative to the state that it’s played in, even if Toussaint and Holmes were among the best talents that year, keep in mind they were facing typical prep talent. Not every South Carolina and Florida prepster is going to play division one ball in college, and even if they did, they wouldn’t all play in the power conferences like the SEC or the ACC.

The second aspect of a battle tested pitcher is the college conference they play in. The Mountain West and Conference USA, once upon a time, were college hotbeds, but now they’re essentially a tick below the real power conferences. Sure, pitchers like Hoffman and Fedde may get the opportunity to play a power conference team here and there, but ultimately, unless it was consistent, it’s a waste of time for Alderson to even think about Fedde and Hoffman.

This leaves it to two pitchers: Nola, and Beede.

Nola, the ace at LSU, is a pitcher who, while he isn’t going to blow you away with any special pitch, has great command and control of his offerings. He won’t be an ace at the major league level, but his dependability will be an asset to any team that needs a pitcher who can go deep into innings.

Beede, on the other hand, is an anti-Nola. His fastball is his best major league offering, going from the low to mid 90’s, and his ceiling is a front-end starter, possibly as high as #2. What Beede lacks in his game is pitch consistency. While Beede does have devastating offerings, like his fastball, curve and change up, they are only effective if he can consistently locate the strike zone.

So who should Sandy pick if it comes down to Nola and Beede?

In a perfect world, Nola will fall to the tenth spot where Alderson can nab him. His consistency and even strength in his offerings mean that either he’s going to be an above average hurler with little to no need to tinker, or, if there is room for improvement, establish a dominant pitch or make each pitch better. Nola’s mechanics are excellent and he is battle tested against the highest possible level of competition in college baseball. It seems that Nola is one of the very few high ceiling/high floor talents, and although Alderson isn’t the type of general manager who goes for safe picks, getting that combination will pay off rather quickly.

Thanks again to Alex for this fantastic post and make sure to check out his website Minor League Madhouse. He has all of your draft needs covered.

Mets close to signing 1st round pick Dom Smith

By Steven Inman

Dominic Smith is close to signing a contract with the Mets, according to ESPN. Smith, 17, was one of the best high school bats in the country but is extremely raw and it could take him a while to get to the big leagues.

I liked the Smith pick as I thought the Mets were determined to take the best bat available and at 11 he was the best bat left. Everyone says he is a fantastic defensive 1^st baseman but has struggled at every other position he has played.

Smith will report to Port St. Lucie in the next few days and will probably get some at bats on the Mets Gulf Coast League team. It is very promising that the Mets were able to sign Smith so quickly when they haven’t been able to sign 1^st rounders until the July 15^th deadline the past few years.

Don’t underestimate the impact of Smith getting an extra 200 at bats this season for his development moving forward.

2013 Mets Draft Day 2

By Steven Inman

Mets second round pick Andrew Church

After selecting 1B Dominic Smith in the first round and pitcher Andrew Church in the second, the Mets went with a few more high schoolers with their next few picks.

In the third round (#76 overall) the Mets drafted high school outfielder Ivan Wilson. Here is what Keith Law of ESPN wrote about Wilson in an insider piece. “Wilson is all kinds of raw right now, but for a team that likes to draft athletic kids and try to teach them how to play baseball, he’s got enough ceiling (above-average regular) to be appealing in the third round or so. Wilson is strong and well-built at 6-foot-3, 220 pounds with good bat speed but a deep load that bars his lead arm and creates excessive length, meaning he can’t always get to the potentially plus power from his wrist strength and big hip rotation. His swing path is also very inconsistent, and like many kids from very rural high schools he doesn’t recognize offspeed stuff well yet. He’s an average runner, a little slow out of the box and better underway, with plenty of arm for right field.”

With the Mets second third round pick (#84 overall) they took Casey Meisner, a righthand pitcher out of Cypress Woods High School in Texas. He is 6′ 7″ and 190 lbs. Meisner has a nice arm but it may be difficult to sign him away from a commitment to Texas Tech.

In the fourth round (#116^th overall)the Mets took UCONN 2B L.J. Mazzilli, yes Lee’s kid. Lee Mazzilli was taken by the Mets in the draft exactly 40 years ago. L.J. Mazzilli wasn’t just drafted for his bloodlines though this kid can play. I got the opportunity to call a few St. John’s UConn games last season and Mazzilli was definitely the best player for either team on the field. Mazzilli, a senior signing out of College, shouldn’t be too hard to sign.

Mets fourth round pick L.J. Mazzilli

In the fifth round (#146^th overall) the Mets took Jared King, a leftfielder and switch hitter out of Kansas State University. King is listed at 6′ 1″ and 200 lbs and is 21-years-old. King can hit for average and power, according to reports. As a sophomore at KSU, King hit .377 with 15 doubles, seven home runs and 47 RBI in 56 games. “I thought he was at worst a third-round pick,” MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo said of King. He was listed as the 68th best prospect by Baseball America.

The Mets first few picks clearly show what Sandy Alderson, John Ricco, Paul Depodesta and J.P. Riccardi have been doing with their drafts and that is constantly picking upside over “project ability”. The Mets picked guys who may not be in the big leagues for five years, but if they make it they could be stars. Smith looks like he could be a star first basemen but not for a very long time.

I think Keith Law said it best when he said this Met regime likes drafting athletic kids and teaching them how to play baseball.

Ivan Wilson is still learning how to play baseball, but he could be a dynamic outfielder down the road. Now here comes the tough part and that is signing these guys. The deadline is July 15^th to sign these guys or they will no longer be Mets property.

The team has $6.99 million to spend on the first ten rounds. Then they will try to sign them as soon as possible in an effort to get them into professional baseball games this year.

With the 11th pick, the Mets select 1B Dominic Smith

By Steven Inman

For the third consecutive year, the Mets selected a high school position player taking Dominic Smith, a 1B from California. Smith, 17, is strictly a first basemen but Ike Davis shouldn’t be packing his bags any time soon. Smith is probably four or five years away from the big leagues.

I think Smith was probably the best hitter left in the draft. I was originally led to believe that the Mets like New Mexico 13/3B D.J. Peterson more. Peterson went one pick later at 12. I think the Mets made the right choice even if Peterson might move through the minors a lot quicker.

There were a lot of good pitchers left on the board such as Brandon Shipley and Ryne Stanek. All along though it seemed as if the Mets were determined to take the best available bat.

Smith could become a very good player with a smooth left handed swing who can hit for average and power but he is very far away from the big leagues. MLB Network compared him to Todd Helton. Smith compared himself to Robinson Cano and Carlos Gonzalez.

Smith was available because he is so raw and high school first basemen don’t usually go in the first round of drafts. The last one taken was Eric Hosmer by the Royals.

Mets assistant GM Paul Depodesta called him a “special” defender and also said the Mets could move him to RF down the road if necessary.

I like this pick a lot better than Sandy Alderson’s previous two first round picks as General Manager.

Ideally the Mets can sign him as soon as possible so he can get into pro ball. The Mets didn’t sign Gavin Cecchini in 2012 until the last possible moment which meant he wasn’t able to get into any professional games. He is still in extended spring training waiting for the Brooklyn Cyclones season to start in a few weeks.

The Mets pick again Thursday night with the 48^th pick.

What do you think of the Mets 1^st round pick?