With new owner Steve Cohen taking over the New York Mets, it’s obvious to say big changes are coming. Instead of hoping the Mets solve a hole or two like they have the last few winters, huge expectations are here right now to become an instant, perennial contender. It’s okay to dream big Mets fans, as Cohen has discussed upping payroll and investing in not just players but more analytics and front office personnel.
The Dodgers got new ownership in 2012 who drastically improved not just the roster but the entire organization. The franchise hasn’t missed the playoffs since. Cohen mentioned during his press conference while he wants to do things his own Met way, the Dodgers certainly are an organization that should be emulated.
Below should be the Mets offseason wish list that makes them an instant contender. While this list would have been fantasyland just a year ago, it certainly seems realistic based off of Cohen’s comments about reinvesting into the team.
- Sign Trevor Bauer
Trevor Bauer is clearly the top pitcher on the market and its already clear there is mutual interest between the Mets and Bauer. Sandy Alderson on WFAN last week described Bauer’s unique personality as something that could be a welcome addition to NY. Alderson brought up how baseball is an entertainment industry first and foremost. Bauer is a very intelligent pitcher who Alderson said could help the Mets out with new ideas when it comes to pitching.
Bauer has also made it clear he would have interest in pitching for the Mets. Bauer put up a YouTube clip which was around 15 minutes of praising Steve Cohen’s press conference and social media approach to addressing the fans. The title of Bauer’s video is “Steve Cohen’s BRILLIANT start”.
The main question with Bauer isn’t how his personality will fit in a major market like New York but what will be his price tag? Bauer has said in the past he will take one-year deals to maximize his future earnings but based on the season he just had, that seems unlikely. Bauer has been inconsistent in his Major League career but finished his ninth MLB season on a high note with a Cy Young award and a 1.73 ERA. Top of the rotation pitching is in short supply so even in this depressed free agent market, Bauer will be paid like an ace. While the timing couldn’t be any better for Bauer’s free agency, he’s not exactly a consistent ace. Look at his ERA each of the last four seasons, 4.19, 2.21, 4.48 and 1.73. Across those four seasons, Bauer has a 3.46 ERA, a good pitcher but not the elite ace that he’ll be paid as.
Despite the small-sample size, is it possible Bauer figured something out this season? While his Cy Young season was just 11 starts, 100 strikeouts in 73 innings is far from a fluke. The upside is certainly there for Bauer to perform similarly in future seasons.
A rotation of Jacob deGrom, Bauer, Marcus Stroman, David Peterson and eventually (hopefully) Noah Syndergaard is the type of rotation that gets into the playoffs and has a legit chance at a championship.
The last time the Mets got to the World Series was based on their pitching. Signing Trevor Bauer is the first step in solidifying a rotation that desperately needs top of the rotation help.
2. Sign George Springer
While the Houston Astros have already re-signed Yuli Gurriel and have shown interest in bringing back Michael Brantley, there has been very little reporting that the Astros will spend the big dollars necessary to retain George Springer.
There is certainly concern about how good the Astros hitters are after the sign-stealing scandal, but Springer didn’t regress much this season (.265/.359/.540 in 222 PAs). What also makes Springer special is he’s been one of the better postseason hitters over the last decade with 18 home runs and a .925 OPS over his last 56 playoff games. Springer is 31 so the question is how will his centerfield defense decline as he gets into his mid-30’s. The hope is the Mets can sign him to a five-year contract and find a new center fielder in year three or four, moving Springer into a corner at that time. Like Bauer, there really isn’t an adequate replacement at his position if the Mets choose elsewhere on the free agent market. The next best centerfielder on the open market is 30-year-old Jackie Bradley Jr. who is a career .239/.321/.412 hitter, pass. As Springer went, so did the Astros and the hope would be he could do the same for what could be a special Met lineup.
Expect the Mets to land a big hitter in free agency, they’ve already shown interest in Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna is a big bat but the Mets need a center fielder, not another LF/DH type at the moment.
3. Extend Michael Conforto
Michael Conforto had a breakout 2020 and it makes a lot of sense to see if the Scott Boras client would consider a long-term extension before he hits free agency. Conforto will get a decent raise in arbitration on his $8 million 2020 salary. Could an extension similar to Justin Upton’s five-year, $106 million contract with the Angels make sense for the Mets? Upton had more MLB experience than Conforto when he signed his deal but since that deal is a few years old, (factoring in inflation) this could make some sense. An outfield duo for most of the decade of Springer and Conforto could be special offensively.
It makes a lot of sense for the Mets to also look at some of their other position players as candidates for long term extensions. The sooner the Mets lock those young players up such as Jeff McNeil, Dominic Smith and Pete Alonso, the cheaper they will be long term. Conforto is looking at $100 plus million because the Mets didn’t explore this possibility when signs of the breakout were appearing. Again, it takes two to tango and Boras may apt for Conforto to hit free agency but Boras clients have signed extension close to free agency before, such as Stephen Strasburg and Jered Weaver.
4. Resist the temptation to trade for Francisco Lindor
You just bought your hometown franchise and the fanbase looks at you like the savior. I bet it’s awfully tempting to make that franchise-altering move and acquire a superstar, middle of the diamond player to immediately put your stamp on the team. Cohen and the Mets need to resist that temptation and let him get traded elsewhere.
Francisco Lindor is in the final year of arbitration and will become a free agent in 2021. This means a team isn’t just paying the Indians prospects but also in terms of a close to $300 million dollar contract. Lindor is likely worth that money as a dynamic shortstop and middle of the order bat but the Mets have spent most of their prospect depth over the last two years under Brodie Van Wagenen. This means the Mets will likely have to include big league talent in the deal for Lindor. Speculation has come up this could mean Andres Gimenez and more importantly Jeff McNeil. McNeil is a career .319/.383/.501 hitter in three seasons as a Met. The sample size is large enough now to show that he’s no fluke and I can’t imagine trading him as part of a bigger package for a rental player, no matter how good Lindor is. Now maybe the asking price on Lindor decreases as the winter goes on and we can discuss this idea further but that is unlikely.
The trade for Lindor now supporters compare this to the Mookie Betts trade, where Betts signed long term in LA, won a World Series and never reached free agency. Yes, the same thing could happen to Lindor on his new team as well. Having said that, there are plenty of 2021 All-Star shortstop options available for the Mets in a year besides Lindor such as Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Javier Baez & Carlos Correa. It is likely that a couple of them could sign long term deals before they hit free agency. With that said, the odds that none of them hit the open market is remote at best. Sandy Alderson has acknowledged that the upper levels of the minors are barren. Amed Rosario and Gimenez can handle shortstop and the No. 9 spot in the lineup for a year (assuming the DH is back again because why wouldn’t it be) and then the Mets can make shortstop a top priority in a year if neither of those homegrown players show they can handle the full-time role.
5. Finally fix the bullpen
Death, taxes and the New York Mets bullpen underachieving are the only things certain in this world but with a new owner comes new possibilities. Could one of these possibilities be the Mets finally fixing their bullpen? Absolutely and this is a great winter to try it.
The Indians declined a relatively cheap club option on closer Brad Hand and shockingly no team in baseball claimed him. Hand, 30, has a 2.70 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over his last five seasons as one of the more underrated bullpen weapons in the game. The entire baseball industry decided he wasn’t worth picking up for a $10 million 2021 salary and he went unclaimed. This means if you are one of the few franchises willing to spend this winter, not only can you revamp your roster, but you can also get really great bargains too.
Hand should be considered, as should Athletics closer Liam Hendriks, as the free agent struck out 161 in 110.1 innings over his last two seasons in Oakland. Certainly don’t expect the small market A’s to spend wildly in free agency. Expect the Brewers to dangle dynamic closer Josh Hader in trade discussions again this winter as he gets pricier but with so many interesting free agent options, the Mets should preserve their prospects. The Mets should also move Seth Lugo back to the bullpen where he’s at his best. It’s been made very clear that he reportedly prefers to start but he’s just such an impact pitcher out of the bullpen, it makes too much sense to move him back to relief for good. The Mets could find a middle of the rotation starter like Charlie Morton or Jake Odorizzi on a one-year deal to fill Lugo’s rotation spot. By acquiring one or even both of Hendriks and Hand and moving Seth Lugo back to the bullpen, the Mets have the makings of a great bullpen. Not only are Lugo, Hand & Hendriks great relievers, but they all have experience in a variety of bullpen roles. The Mets must get bullpen insurance in case Edwin Diaz blows up again.
6. Sign James McCann
While J.T. Realmuto is the best catcher in baseball and available on the free agent market, it’s scary to commit 100+ million to a catcher who will be 30 before Opening Day. Has a large, long-term contract for a catcher ever worked out for a team before? Buster Posey and Joe Mauer were being transitioned to first base long before the final years of their contracts (Posey is still owed $22.177,778 in the final guaranteed year in his contract in 2021). The Blue Jays last year paid $16.4 million to get the Dodgers to take the final year of Russell Martin’s contract off their hands.
It makes much more sense to make catcher a year-to-year position because it’s just so taxing. Willson Contreras would be the perfect fit but it’s unclear what the Cubs would want for him (it would take a big haul). Veteran James McCann is the best solution here as he is a solid defensive catcher who has learned how to hit big league pitching in his two seasons with the White Sox, slashing .276/.334/.474 across 587 plate appearances. McCann is hardly a star catcher but he’s solid enough to drive in some runs batting eighth, while more importantly handling a very good pitching staff. McCann could likely be had on a two-year $26 million contract. The money the Mets are saving on his deal compared to signing Realmuto is going towards Bauer & Springer’s large contracts.
Again, this is the Mets offseason “wish list” meaning if they fall short of doing all of these things, it’s far from a disaster. Having said that, there is no reason not to expect an eventful offseason where many of these things listed above could happen.
Now it’s your turn. Leave in the comments below your Mets offseason wish list. Let’s Go Mets!
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